 | Politics "wid" a taste of Philly, by Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News |
| Politics "wid" a taste of Philly, by Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News |
On April 15, every American is required to submit his income taxes. On Sept. 30, every American political writer is required to submit his "guide to watching the debate." Frankly, we think any undecided voter would be better served with this debate drinking game or this one.
But, for any American who's anal-retentive enough to sit through the debate with a pencil and "keep score," here's Campaign Extra!'s debate guide. If Al Gore's reading this (and what else does he have to do?), no sighing or eye-rolling:
How can you tell who won tonight's debate? If the past is any kind of prologue, TV's talking heads will have a disproportionally high influence on who wins.
In 2000, the initial sense among viewers was a slight edge to Al Gore. But once the punditocracy weighed in, George W. Bush was declared the winner.
This year, why not eliminate the middleman? Using this Daily News scorecard, you can decide for yourself who won - before Chris Matthews even opens his mouth.
Likability
Poll after poll shows that voters respond best to the candidates who "understand the problems of people like me," or the one they'd "most like to have a beer with." Conversely, they tend to be cool to politicians - from Adlai Stevenson through Al Gore - who act like they're the smartest person in the room.
Thus, Gore's eye-rolling and sighing at some of Bush's answers cost him more points than he won for knowing how to properly pronounce the name of world leaders. Likewise, radio listeners actually thought Richard Nixon beat John F. Kennedy in 1960, but TV viewers - who saw his sweat and swarthy complexion - went the other way. And George H.W. Bush sealed his doom in 1992 by looking at his watch.
Advantage ________________
Gaffes
Candidates get a lot less credit for getting things right than are damaged by getting something wrong. If you don't believe us, ask Gerald Ford about the second term he was denied in 1976 when he identified Poland as a nation not under the control of the Soviet Union.
One reason that Bush performed well in 2000 is because he's very good at sticking to the script - any deviations in 2004 could hurt. Ditto any Kerry comments that can be used to accuse him - fairly or not - of flip-flopping.
Advantage ________________
Zingers
Do you remember where Jimmy Carter was "going again, Mr. President" in 1980 against Ronald Reagan, or what Gary Hart proposal lacked "the beef" against Walter Mondale in 1984? Of course not, but you remember the line, and you probably remember what happened to Carter and Hart.
Even more dramatic, Dan Quayle never really recovered from "you're no Jack Kennedy." Will any candidate pull off a memorable line in 2004? If so, it may affect history's verdict well beyond the substance of what was actually said.
Advantage ________________
Substance
Remember this? What really put Reagan over the top in 1980 was his now-famous query, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago," which framed the issues against Carter in the simplest way.
Will Kerry, trailing in the polls and given to unwieldy political talk, be able to break down the Bush presidency in such a way? It may be his only chance. Few if any voters will switch sides tonight, but some undecided voters will find a comfort level with one or the other.
Advantage ________________
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