 | Politics "wid" a taste of Philly, by Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News |
| Politics "wid" a taste of Philly, by Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News |
This morning in the Daily News, Campaign Extra!'s cousin, Trail Mix, joined a growing obsession among the obsessive classes in speculating that George W. Bush will win the popular vote on Nov. 2, but John Kerry will triumph in the Electoral College.
Of course, 2000 showed that it's very possible in the 21st Century to win one and lose the other. There would be a rich irony if Bush were the victim in 2004 of the system that rewarded him in 2000. But the joke will probably be lost on Americans who'll face four more years of carping that their president wasn't truly elected.
Right now, the leading polls show the national horserace anywhere from even to an 8 point lead for Bush. But a tracking site called electoral-vote.com predicts that Kerry would win the election if it were held today with 284 electoral votes -- more than the 270 needed for victory.
How could Bush, who received more than half million less popular votes than Al Gore in 2000, be more popular this time but possibly lose votes in the Electoral College? Here's how -- by gaining lots of votes in non-battleground states, but losing ground in the states that actually determine the winner.
A quick guide:
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut: Bush should do much better here than in 2000. Blame the terrorists. Bush's response to the 9/11 attacks at the World Trade Center won him some converts in these three deep-blue Democratic states, especially among the now almost mythical "Security Moms" who are now more worried about al-Qaeda invading their kid's grade school than the Supreme Court invading their wombs. So Bush gains popular votes, but no electoral votes.
California: Gore won big here in 2000, but since then voters were so angered by their Democratic governor that they kicked him out of office and replaced him with a Republican who's very popular right now (even though that's partly for differing with Bush in so many issues). So again, more GOP popular votes, nothing in the Electoral College.
The Deep South: Every year, more of the oldtime "Yellow Dog Democrats" die or switch parties, making these conservative states more and more Republican. So what? Bush had these electoral votes already.
Florida: The Democrats need only gain 538 votes to win 25 27 electoral votes. Can they do that? You bet. Cubans aren't as mad at the D's as they were in 2000, over the Elian Gonzalez case. The Dems say they've registered scores of new voters here, and they're got more lawyers than a SEPTA bus accident to back that up.
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa: Rust never sleeps. These are the real battleground states and, unfortunately for Bush, they just happen to be the ones most hard-hit by the outsourcing of jobs overseas and the general decline of manaufacturing. And Ohio -- which has 20 big electoral votes -- and went narrowly for Bush in 2000 -- seems to be the most badly hit of them all. Will Kerry sweep here?
So let's review. Lots more votes for Bush in states that don't matter. A few more votes for Kerry in the few states that do matter. And a reversal of fortune from 2000 to 2004.
Who'll be asking to scrap the Electoral College in 2005?
I live in Iowa, I work in the computer support industry. I have not been outsourced, nor has any company in this area. In fact, we've gained 2 new customers in the last year, and hired 12 more employee's. Unemployement is below 5%, wages are up over a year ago. Housing is booming, hospitals are being built, and there are hardly any open spots to park at Old Navy.
Make of it what you will.
Posted by: John at October 19, 2004 11:38 AMOh, and a major manufacturer in the area announced its plans to expand by 120 employee's in the next year.
Posted by: John at October 19, 2004 11:40 AMActually Florida now has 27 EV. They had 25 in 2000.
Posted by: InsultComicDog at October 19, 2004 12:22 PMI cant believe a Bush man said our lost jobs in Ohio are a myth. He ought to come out to Mansfield to take a look for himself.
Posted by: Doug at October 19, 2004 12:22 PM27. Got it. Thanks, ICD.
Posted by: admin at October 19, 2004 12:42 PMlots of jobs were lost and bush is not helping our country
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