 | Politics "wid" a taste of Philly, by Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News |
| Politics "wid" a taste of Philly, by Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News |
A Redskins loss at home is supposed to portend a defeat for the incumbent president. So check this out! The Redskins just scored to make it a nailbiter -- figures.
UPDATE: This headline says it all -- "Packers Win -- Kerry's In!" Got a laugh from the always-good Glen Macknow on WIP, who wondered whether Bush would go ahead with the election, or just concede now.
This just moved on the AP wire -- we will post a link when we get one:
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — A panel of once-undecided Pennsylvania voters has tilted toward Democrat John Kerry, saying they are fed up with the war in Iraq, the state of the economy and what they called an untrustworthy White House.
Of the 12 voters interviewed weekly since late September by The Associated Press, seven said they will vote for Kerry, while four said they will stick with President Bush. The final voter could not be reached for comment.
Pennsylvania is a battleground state where polls indicate voters are nearly evenly divided.
"I never felt good about going to Iraq right from the start, but I just believed President Bush that there must be a good reason," said Wilma Tabiz, 54, a Republican who got most of her information about the election from newspaper and network news Internet sites.
But an early October report, concluding that fallen Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein did not have stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction, pushed Tabiz into Kerry’s camp. The White House used Saddam’s alleged weapons stockpiles as the main justification to invade Iraq in March 2003.
"I've lost my trust in him, and I can’t support him," Tabiz said.
Apparently, the winner on Tuesday depends on whether the Redskins win or lose today. We guess we've been just wasting our time, then. Here's the ponderous pre-election preview you've come to expect on pre-Election Sunday. Electoral-vote.com is predicting a Bush victory with 280 votes, if you believe that the GOP carries Michigan and maybe New Jersey, something no expert does.
Slate has Kerry up with 272 electoral votes, thanks to a beltway from Ohio to Minnesota. Josh Marshall explains why the Osama tape probably isn't helping Bush, despite the media blather. Maureen Dowd reaches the same conclusion independently. And "the Most Trusted Man in America" thinks the OBL tape is a Karl Rove production.
Here's a few questions to ask in the voting booth. Why didn't Bush & Co. kill Zarqawi when they had the chance? Did Bush really talk about invading Iraq back in 1999? Why did the Pentagon harass a Halliburton whistleblower? Why are we still learning about unprotected weapons sites in Iraq? Why do "senior Bush officials" call the new bin Laden tape "good" for them? Why does it look like the Pentagon is getting ready for a draft? Is Ohio really the new Florida?
Earlier this week, we told you the story of two Ground Zero workers, including a NYC firefighter, who allege that three of the four "black boxes" from the planes that struck the World Trade Center were recovered. We hope that when the silly season ends, these claims will be investigated more fully, by Congress or a Kerry administration if there is one.
Now, comes a former colleague -- and one of the hardest-working and best reporters in the business -- Jim Dwyer of the New York Times. This morning, he's reporting that the Bush administration is covering up a section of the 9/11 commission report that alleges lies and holes in the official version of how the FAA and NORAD responded to the hijackings.
It's taken three years, but people are finally waking up to this. Even Osama bin Laden -- who will burn in hell some day but does know a little more about 9/11 than we do -- said in his videotape yesterday that he was amazed the U.S. military didn't respond sooner.
This is from the New York Times story:
One last chapter of the investigation by the Sept. 11 commission, a supplement completed more than two months ago, has not yet been made public by the Justice Department, and officials say it is unlikely to be released before the presidential election, even though that had been a major goal of deadlines set for the panel.
Drawing from this unpublished part of the inquiry, the commission quietly asked the inspectors general at the Departments of Defense and Transportation to review what it had determined were broadly inaccurate accounts provided by several civil and military officials about efforts to track and chase the hijacked aircraft on Sept. 11.
David Barnes, a spokesman with the Department of Transportation, said yesterday that if the reviews found wrongdoing, the inspector general could recommend administrative penalties or ask federal prosecutors to begin a criminal investigation.
"The investigation is ongoing,'' Mr. Barnes said, "and we don't know when it will be done."
In testimony before the commission, officials had described a quick response to the hijackings that narrowly missed intercepting some of the planes, but the commission's investigators later determined from documentary evidence that none of the military planes were anywhere near the four airliners.
In addition, officials at the Federal Aviation Administration testified that they had notified the military within a few minutes of each hijacking, but the investigation found that tape recordings contradicted that assertion.
The commission, in its final report, said that the true picture "did not reflect discredit" on individuals, but that unreliable testimony about the events had made it harder to understand the problems.
(October) Surprise! We're not making this up. Here's the bulletin:
Oct 29, 3:09 PM (ET)
DUBAI (Reuters) - Arab satellite television Al Jazeera said on Friday it would broadcast a video tape from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden addressing the American people.
It said the tape, to be aired at 4 p.m. EDT, would discuss the reasons behind the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States and their repercussions. It gave no further details.
He's probably tricking the cable networks, and he's just going to give his standard stump speech.
UPDATE: Yup, he's baaaaaaaaaaack. Looks like he's gained a few pounds since we last saw him. We wonder if he was waiting for the markets to close at 4 p.m.
UPDATE: Actually, the Dow shot up about 30 points the instant that the Osama tape was announced, so apparently terror is good for the economy. Also, the wingnuts over on the far-right Web site, Free Republic, are saying things like: "This is terrific news for the President." Disgusting.
One of our favorite Web sites, the Raw Story, has a scoop about a new mailing that the Bush-Cheney camp's been sending out here in Pennsylvania. It shows a number of newspaper front pages (almost all from swing states, for what it's worth) that show the World Trade Center ablaze and even the second plane striking the South Tower.
It's probably the lowest moment of a low campaign. If any of our readers (hello?) in Pennsylvania have recieved this, we'd love to hear from you. The Raw Story has downloaded the images. Here some of their story.
On the front side, the ad asks in red print, “How Can John Kerry Lead America In A Time of War?” It adds three subsequent lines, “Kerry: Changing Positions,” “Kerry: Cutting Defense” and “Kerry: Slashing Intelligence.”
Following that, there are nine images of the front pages of Sept. 12, 2001 newspapers (shown below), all of which display the smoking towers of the World Trade Center before they collapsed, killing some 2,600 people. One includes the approach of the plane.
While the Bush-Cheney campaign has routinely used 9/11 as a keystone of their campaign, these are the first print advertisements this site is aware of which actually display multiple images of the burning twin towers. The ad states that it was paid for by the Republican National Committee, with the approval of Bush-Cheney ‘04.
The second side blames Kerry for “slashing intelligence,” though it neglects to note that the CIA did not believe there was a solid case for war. President Bush took America to war over the CIA’s objection, leaving it unclear what the relevance of Kerry’s alleged “slashing intelligence” means in this election.
The third side details the programs Kerry allegedly voted “to cut.” These programs were part of broad Defense Department packages, which Kerry is believed to have voted against in protest of excessive Pentagon spending .
OK, maybe it's not THE October surprise, but it's interesting to learn that in the same week that Bill Clinton hits the Pa. campaign trail for John Kerry, a new hanky-panky charge comes out against the Big Dawg, right here in Philadelphia.
Former Miss Arkansas Sally Perdue -- a long-rumored Clinton paramour -- filed a federal sexual harassment suit here yesterday, not against the ex-president but against a Quaker meeting house in West Chester, Pa., where she worked from 2001 to 2003.
The lawsuit states that her problems resulted because she "was involved in a sexual relationship with former President William Jefferson Clinton" before she took a job as director of fundraising and PR with the Quaker group. It says she suffered from sexual and religious harassment because people knew about her affair with Clinton -- and that she was fired after complaining to the federal EEOC about it.
The story was broken in the Daily News today by reporter Jim Smith. The lawsuit was filed under the name of Myra Belle "Sally" Miller. Although the one-time beauty queen has gone under the name Sally Miller Perdue in the past, it was difficult late last night to confirm with 100 percent certainly that Myra Belle Miller and Sally Perdue are the same person. Smith called the plaintiff at her current home in Alexandria, Va., and was told "in a distinct Southern accent" to contact her lawyers.
This morning, some additional research by Campaign Extra! seems to leave little doubt that the plaintiff is the former Arkansas pageant winner who once appeared in a Playboy centerfold. (see UPDATE below.) One advanced search engine shows that a 65-year-old "Sally M. Perdue" lives in Alexandria, used to live in West Chester, Pa., and was issued a Social Security number in Arkansas in the mid-1950s.
The lawsuit would be legal confirmation of an allegation that Perdue reportly aired on the Sally Jessy Rafael show some years back. She said the affair with Clinton took place in 1983 when he was governor of Arkansas, and was aided and abetted by state troopers. But she vanished again after the interview and avoided the hoopla of the Monica Lewinsky era.
Is the timing of the lawsuit political? There's no evidence to suggest that, although at a time when the GOP is eager to drum up a big turnout among social conservatives, what better reminder of what they saw as the moral squalor of the Clinton years.
The suit claims that supervisors suggested she date a 91-year-old Quaker board member, placed photos of "elderly and scantily-clad men" on her desk, handed her "unsolicited religious literature" and implied she was a "fallen woman, told her to wear "longer skirts and less makeup", stole her mail, vandalized her car and said she'd be "better off if she learned Quaker ways."
It states that she was told by one of her managers in February 2001 that a school board member knew of the sexual relationship with Clinton.
"The relationship had in fact occurred but ended before" Miller started working with the Quakers, the suit notes. "Despite the fact that" Miller "made it clear she did not wish to discuss same, they began subjecting" her "to a continuing pattern of harassment and discrimination based on her sex and religion," the suit alleges.
It also alleges that she was told she was too friendly with male parents of schoolchildren.
She claims the defendants "sarcastically" advised her when she received phone messages and calls that "Bill Clinton" was on the phone.
UPDATE: This correction will run in the 11/2 Daily News: A story in Friday's newspaper reported on a suit that Myra Belle Sally Miller, filed against her employer, the West Chester Meeting of Friends, for alleging discriminating against her after learning of her prior sexual relationship with President Clinton. That article stated that Ms. Perdue, a former Miss Arkansas, had appeared as a Playboy centerfold. That statement is incorrect. We apologize to Ms. Perdue for this incorrect statement.
The only place that George W. visited more times as president than his beloved ranch in Crawford is right here in Pennsylvania -- a whopping 43 times. And yet, how fitting is it that Bush ended his Quixotic quest for Pa.'s 21 electoral votes in a pumpkin patch in Bucks County, waiting for a victory about as likely the Great Pumpkin's arrival Sunday night.
Al Hunt, our favorite member of the "Capital Gang," nails it in the Wall Street Journal. He writes:
Almost immediately following the cliffhanger 2000 election, Bush strategists identified the Keystone State as an opportunity target. Much of that was based on the theory they could walk a delicate line and improve the Republican candidate's standing in the populous four-county Philadelphia suburbs -- which lean Republican economically, but are socially liberal -- and at the same time do better than last time in western Pennsylvania, with its sizable pro-gun and pro-life constituencies.
As of today, it appears a miscalculation.....
In 2000, Al Gore carried Pennsylvania by 200,000 votes. Democrats have won the registration war since then, adding 112,000 more new voters than the Republicans....
...Bush might not be showing the improvement that he hoped for in some of the working-class western Pennsylvania communities. The abortion and even the gun-control issue appear to have less salience than usual in those communities.
"A lot of my people who are usually talking about guns and abortion in October," says veteran Western Pennsylvania Democratic Congressman John Murtha, "now are talking about outsourcing and prescription drugs."
It doesn't matter who wins Tuesday -- America only has one Boss. In the end, will Halliburton put Kerry over the top? Or will it be the White House's ever-unraveling story line on those missing explosives in Iraq? (This photographic lie unraveled yesterday, too.) Here's our proposed title for a Bush campaign documentary -- "Bad News Dogs." But that hasn't stopped thousands of voters from taking "The Bush Pledge." We knew there was some reason that that electoral-vote.com has Bush in the lead with 281 electoral votes.
You can't believe how much block-the-vote crap is going on. Salon.com goes to NASA to prove that Bush really was wearing something on his back in the debates. (Non-subscribers click "Day Pass" and watch a short ad). And a Princeton math professor has a proposal for reforming the process...oops, that's the World Series he's talking about. Spreaking of math, Krugman just about sums it all up.
Inside today's -- "What, there's an election next week, too?" -- Daily News: Identical triplet cousin William Bunch (no relation) tells the electorate to take a chill pill. Chris Brennan goes to Yardley to wait for the Great Pumpkin -- and President Bush shows up instead! Teresa Heinz Kerry woos her fellow African-Americans here in Philly.
Signe Wilkinson raises the terror-alert level -- on possible Supreme Court vacancies. How seriously can you take an endorsement of Bush from a politician everyone called Francis "The Talking Mule" Rafferty. But Elmer Smith is deadly serious about the election, and he thinks Bush is going to win.
Thanks for visiting -- when you're done, please check out our new blog, called Attytood. It's got more on Gannon/Guckert, and all the same fair but dangerously unbalanced political commentary you came to expect from Campaign Extra! -- just with a new name and some new features.
This is the more comprehensive version of our story appearing in today's Philadelphia Daily News.
Two men who worked extensively in the wreckage of the World Trade Center claim they helped federal agents find three of the four “black boxes” from the jetliners that struck the towers on 9/11 - contradicting the official account.
Both the independent 9/11 Commission and federal authorities continue to insist that none of the four devices - a cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR) from the two planes - were ever found in the wreckage.
But New York City firefighter Nicholas DeMasi has written in a recent book -- self-published by several Ground Zero workers -- that he escorted federal agents on an all-terrain vehicle in October 2001 and helped them locate three of the four.
His account is supported by a volunteer, Mike Bellone, whose efforts at Ground Zero have been chronicled in the New York Times and elsewhere. Bellone said assisted DeMasi and the agents and that saw a device that resembling a “black box” in the back of the firefighter’s ATV.
Their story raises the question of whether there was a some type of cover-up at Ground Zero. Federal aviation officials - blaming the massive devastation - have said the World Trade Center attacks seem to be the only major jetliner crashes in which the critical devices were never located.
A footnote to the 9/11 Commission Report issued this summer flatly states: “The CVRs and FDRs from American 11 and United 175” - the two planes that hit the Trade Center - “were not found.”
And officials for the FBI - which oversaw the cleanup at Ground Zero - and the New York City Fire Department repeated this week that the devices were never recovered.
The “black boxes” - actually orange - could have provided valuable new information about the worst terror attack to ever take place on American soil.
The cockpit voice recorder uses two microphones to capture the sounds of the cockpit for the last 30 minutes of a doomed flight on a tape loop. In the case of the hijacked 9/11 jetliners, the devices should have captured any conversations or actions involving the hijackers, as well as radio transmissions.
The flight data recorder records things like airspeed, heading, and altitude. Both devices - located in the tail of the airplane - emit loud “pings” so they can be located even in ocean jetliner crashes, like the 1996 explosion of TWA Flight 800 off Long Island.
They are built to survive an impact of enormous force - 3400 Gs - and a fire of 1100 degrees Celsius for one hour, somewhat higher than official estimates of the World Trade Center blaze.
“It's extremely rare that we don't get the recorders back. I can't recall another domestic case in which we did not recover the recorders,” Ted Lopatkiewicz, spokesman for the National Transportation Safety Board, told CBS News in 2002. However, officials said little of the jets was recovered.
DeMasi was with now defunct Engine Company 261 in 2001. He wrote up his recollections of the Ground Zero recovery in a glossy book self-published by a group that calls itself Trauma Recovery Assistance for Children, or the TRAC Team. The book was published in 2003 but received little notice.
(There's more on the book and how people can get it at this site.)
DeMasi, an all-terrain vehicles hobbyist - said he donated 4 ATVs to the clean-up and became known as “the ATV Guy.”
“At one point, I was asked to take Federal Agents around the site to search for the black boxes from the planes,” he wrote. “We were getting ready to go out. My ATV was parked at the top of the stairs at the Brooks Brothers entrance area. We loaded up about a million dollars worth of equipment and strapped it into the ATV...”
“There were a total of four black boxes. We found three.”
Efforts over several days to locate and interview DeMasi, who is now said to be with the FDNY’s Marine Unit, were not successful.
But his account was verified by another member of the so-called TRAC Team, recovery site volunteer Bellone. He recalled FBI agents arriving for the search one day in early October, setting up their equipment near Brooks Brothers. He said he didn’t go out with them on the ATV but observed their search.
At one point, Bellone said he observed the team with a box that appeared charred but was redish-orange with two white stripes. Pictures of the flight recorders on the NTSB and other Web sites show devices that are orange, with two white stripes.
“There was the one that I saw, and two others were recovered in different locations - but I wasn’t there for the other two,” Bellone said. He said the FBI agents left with the boxes.
If the account by DeMasi and Bellone is true, it’s not clear what motive federal authorities would have for claiming they weren’t found.
By the same token, however, it’s not clear what incentive either man would have to lie.
An FBI spokesman in New York, Jim Margolin, said after checking with the leader of the Ground Zero investigation that none of the boxes were recovered.
Frank Gribbon, the FDNY spokesman, also said “no one in the Department is aware of the recovery of any of the airline "black boxes" at the WTC site.”
Bellone has encounted some unrelated problems in connection with the TRAC group, however. In April, the New York Post reported (story not available online) that TRAC owned money to a number of creditors, including the company that published the book. Fire officials also told Bellone, who was made an honorary firefighter by a New York engine company, that he couldn’t wear an official uniform on school visits.
The Bush-Cheney campaign, in its latest attempt to change the topic, is sending out an email to journalists with the subject heading: "In Case You Missed It: Red Sox Hero Endorses President Bush."
The hero in question is pitcher Curt Schilling, who threw in a political plug when talking to Charles Gibson of "Good Morning America": "And make sure you tell everybody to vote, and vote Bush next week."
We're all thrilled by the Red Sox win, and marvelled at Schilling's ability to pitch with pain. But it should be noted that on top of his $12 million salary this season, the ex-Phillie (sigh) guaranteed himself an additional $15 million down the road with the World Series win.
Hello? Of course Schilling wants Bush, who enacted the biggest tax cut for multi-millionaires in American history! Thanks for reminding us, Bush-Cheney campaign. Schilling supports the guy who'll keep his taxes low, while his working-class fans get stuck with the bill for Iraq.
It's a good thing we can admire athletes solely for what they do on the playing field.
Breaking news: Pigs can fly! Now, what about the political curse of the Washington Redskins? Today's must-read story: The Washington Post chronicles the goon-squad tactics at Bush campaign rallies. Please Mr. Postman: Don't screw up the voting in Florida.
The latest spin from the White House on those missing weapons is just that -- Josh Marshall explains why. Here's why Hawaii, West Virginia, and Arkansas are back on the political radar screen. Maureen Dowd looks at what's really scary this Halloween: Dick Cheney.
Confused by the polls? Slate tries to help. And the New York Times has learned that most bloggers hate journalists, so we guess we must hate ourselves. But finally, we'd like to thank all the little people out there.
Inside today's dog-eat-dog Daily News: Political trickery is everywhere, and Erin Einhorn is on the case! John Baer is fretting again today -- this time about whether Pennsylvania will be the next Florida. If P. Diddy wants voters to show up at the polls, he'd better learn to start showing up himself! Those darned surrogates are running Chris Brennan ragged. Bush and Kerry Halloween masks -- almost as scary as the real thing! Michael Smerconish goes fishing for red herring -- and catches a military absentee-ballot scandal. And the Jon Stewart fame clock: 14:45 and counting.
Here's a translation of a story from the Rev. Sun Myung Moon's Washington Times that's getting prominent play on the Drudge Report. (shocking, right?) The headline: "Terrorists hope to defeat Bush through Iraq violence."
The truth is, there's thousands of insurgents in Iraq (more every day, in fact) and yes, it wasn't hard for a WT reporter to find a couple to spout their desire to see an American president go down in flames, politically speaking, in next week's election.
"If the U.S. Army suffered numerous humiliating losses, [Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John] Kerry would emerge as the superman of the American people," said Mohammad Amin Bashar, a leader of the Muslim Scholars Association, a hard-line clerical group that vocally supports the resistance.
Resistance leader Abu Jalal boasted that the mounting violence had already hurt Mr. Bush's chances. "American elections and Iraq are linked tightly together," he told a Fallujah-based Iraqi reporter. "We've got to work to change the election, and we've done so. With our strikes, we've dragged Bush into the mud."
We won't dwell on the fact that "liberated" Fallujah isn't safe enough for an American to go and do interviews. But we will point out this: The Washington Times buried the lead of the story! If you keep reading, you'll find that al-Qaeda actually supports Bush. Here's the real news:
Mowafaq Al-Tai, a London-educated architect and intellectual, said different types of resistance fighters have different views of the U.S. election. The most pro-Kerry, he said, are the former Saddam Hussein loyalists — Ba'ath Party members and others who think Washington might scale back its ambitions for Iraq if Mr. Kerry wins, allowing them to re-enter civic life.
The most pro-Bush, he said, are the foreign extremists. "They prefer Bush, because he's a provocative figure, and the more they can push people to the extreme, the better for their case."
Foreign extremists inside Iraq? Who might that be? Hmmm, could they possibly mean...al-Qaeda? You bet! So there you have it. America's most conservative newspaper says that the folks who killed nearly 3,000 Americans on 9/11 want four more years of Bush in office.
Can you interpret that any other way?
Who could possibly be undecided at this point in the race? Nobody, right? Well, that nobody -- if you believe the polls -- is somewhere on the order of 7-10 million American voters, give or take.
This week, we learned that undecided voters even have their own Web site, called (unsurprsingly) undecided.com.The site carries articles both about, and for, undecided voters, and insists that unlike almost all other political sites, it's not "preaching to the choir."
Who's undecided? Here's what the editor of undecided.com, Pete Gray, told us in an email:
One type are looking for reason to believe that the challenger would be
preferable to the incumbent. They know the incumbent, and if they liked
him, they wouldn't be undecided. If the challenger can't impress them,
they'll stay home.
The other type has 'loyalty' to one party, but is unimpressed with that
party's candidate. They may never vote for the other party's candidate,
but they may stay home in droves.
We took a look at some of Pennsylvania's undecideds in today's Daily News. We found a small sample to be intelligent and informed -- but either stressed by work and family, waiting to hear Bush or Kerry address their issues, or just alienated from the process.
You can read the entire report below:
They're the rarest breed in the 2004 presidential election — and they’ve been unfairly stereotyped as apathetic, lazy, uncurious and out-and-out dumb.
They’re undecided voters, and the reality is they’re not that easy to pigeonhole. Listen to a real on-the-fence voter like Nancy Kelly of Pittsburgh’s Squirrel Hill.
Kelly, 56, an assistant to the pastor in a Catholic church, has been watching the candidates closely but is still waiting for one to address the issues that matter to her.
“I have yet to hear them say anything about compassion for the poor in this country,” she said. “I’m concerned about jobs, health care and children not being insured.”
There aren’t too many voters like Kelly, either in Pennsylvania or around the nation. This week’s Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll — which had Kerry ahead in the state by a 49-44 percent margin — found just 7 percent of likely voters still haven’t made a decision about whom to vote for next Tuesday. That’s similar to the undecided numbers in nationwide surveys.
This year, with America’s partisan divide deeper than ever and with stark contrasts between Bush and Kerry both in style and on many of the key issues, the level of undecideds is very small, and relatively unchanged since summer.
So just who are these people?
The Keystone Poll numbers shed very little light. Not surprisingly, the undecideds tend to be moderates and independents, and they are slightly less educated than other voters, although it’s hard to generalize with such a small sample. They are more likely female — 10 percent of female voters vs. 4 percent of male voters — which could reflect busy schedules that leave precious little time for digesting the political debate.
The Keystone Poll director, G. Terry Madonna, political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, said the undecideds also are more likely suburbanites, middle-aged and middle-class. “Some of them would be more with Kerry on the social and cultural issues,” he said, “but are more with Bush on security.”
The Daily News interviewed a handful of voters who told the pollsters they were undecided.
Sarah Smith, of Philadelphia’s Tacony neighborhood, would seem the archetypical undecided voter — 42 years old, mother of three children under the age of 10, and a waitress on weekends.
Smith said she was leaning toward Kerry, in part because she feels that too many jobs have been lost to outsourcing overseas under Bush’s watch.
But she’s just not sure about Kerry, saying there’s just something visceral she doesn’t like about the challenger. “He’s got a sneaky face or something,” she said.
For Robert T. Frederick, 78, a retiree living in Acme, Pa., in western Pennsylvania’s Fayette County, there’s a different problem. Until recently, he was a decided voter — for independent Ralph Nader, who failed to qualify for the ballot.
He said Nader “wanted to exorcise all the things in Washington — the corporations and the lobbyists and whatnot. I thought that was a good idea.”
Frederick said he’s been following the race closely, in part because he has two grandsons in the military — one of whom recently served in Iraq. He said he was leaning toward Kerry because “it seems like it’s time for a change.”
David Chao of Pittsburgh’s South Hills represents yet another type of undecided voter — alienated from the system. The 32-year-old computer-systems administrator admitted that he hasn’t cast a ballot for president since Bill Clinton in 1992, and there’s a good chance he won’t this year.
He thinks that large and corrupt corporations like Enron and Adelphia have tainted the political process in America.
“Those who are in power, whether political or economic, often lack the integrity and responsibility that comes with such power,” he said. “When is the last time that any president came out and said, ‘This is my fault’?”
But for every voter like Chao, there’s one like Kelly across town who’s still checking out the candidates and looking for some statement that finally will close the deal.
“Maybe the problem is my fault,” she fretted. “I haven’t been able to read everything I can get my hands on.”
Why does the BBC uncover all the political dirty tricks in Florida? This just in: Bad news helps Kerry. If you haven't been reading uberblogger Josh Marshall as he picks apart the Iraq missing weapons story, now is the time to start. The New York Times, with ace Jim Dwyer on the case, also blows away the White House spin. The Washington Post analyzes those 527 TV ads that go straight for the gut. Jonathan Alter finds that Halloween has come early in the presidential race.
This fascinating story explains how John Edwards could become George W. Bush's vice president -- seriously. Has the "Block the Vote" campaign now spread to college campuses? Get this: Conservatives are mad at Bush -- over gay marriage! And how Christian is Bush, anyway? Finally, Nicholas Kristof catches Bush in a lie -- over cats and dogs!
Inside today's DN: We make our endorsement: Terrell Owens. Chris Brennan tries to answer the question that's been gnawing at America: Who's a better speaker, Jesse Jackson or Andy Card? If you're having trouble getting your Pa. absentee ballot in its envelope, you're not stupid, and you're not alone. Ronnie Polaneczky finds that political feuding can be all in the family. Identical cousin Trail Mix asks whether "60 Minutes" missed its chance for an "October Surprise." The editorial board weighs in on Iraq's missing weapons: It's bad, it's bad. And you won't believe what voter is still undecided!
We've been gypped! Why does Ohio get all the cool stuff? Via Atrios:
Madison, WI – The Kerry-Edwards campaign announced today that rock legend Bruce Springsteen will hit the campaign trail for the Kerry-Edwards ticket in the closing days of the 2004 campaign.
Springsteen will join John Kerry at campaign rallies in Madison, WI, and Columbus, OH, on Thursday, October 28th, and join the Democratic nominee for an election-eve rally in Cleveland, OH, on November 1st.
Springsteen is expected to perform one or two songs.
There's a new Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll out in the newspaper (what is this?) this morning, and shows what most people have been seeing for the past several weeks, that the state has been trending ever so mildly for John Kerry. He leads by five points among likely voters (49-44) and among registered voters (51-46), and with undecideds breaking for the Democrat there's not much time for President Bush to catch up.
Our writer Erin Einhorn captures the real story, which is that Bush's appeal to fear -- as dramatized by the "Wolves" TV ad -- is just not working. The voters who are most scared about another terrorist attack are voting for Bush -- a whopping 82 percent of them.
But those people are only about one-quarter of the electorate. The majority of the Pennsylvania electorate (52 percent) cares most about one of three things -- the economy, health-care, or the war in Iraq. In each of those areas, nearly two-thirds, or more, are with Kerry.
It's amazing: Bush really is becoming more and more like "the Spanish Inquisition" on Monty Python -- amongst their weaponry are such diverse elements as: fear (vote for Bush or the terrorists will kill you), surprise (hey, October's not over yet), ruthless efficiency (ruthless, yes -- efficient, no), an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope (on abortion and stem cells, anyway), and nice red uniforms (ever see the women at a Bush rally?).
UPDATE: An earlier link to the F&M Web site for poll results was to their next to last poll, from early October. We saw the news release on their homepage and, thinking like deadline reporters, assumed since it was under "news" that it was the latest one. But everything in the item and the DN story is, and was, correct.
Philly is the center of the political universe! But can Kerry follow up with the black vote? Will the missing weapons in Iraq stay on the front burner as a campaign issue? NBC and Matt Drudge try to shoot the story down, but they're refuted here and here. Condi Rice isn't actively campaigning for Bush, is she?
Slate gives the best look at whether Chief Justice William Rehnquist's cancer scare will affect the race. Will Catholics vote for fellow Catholic John Kerry? Paul Krugman -- need we say more? Ohio hasn't gotten this much attention since the heyday of CSNY. Forget about Rock the Vote -- here's Votergasm.org.
Politics rules in today's DN: Is football season over already? Can't get enough of Bill Clinton and Philly? -- Chris Brennan takes you inside the VIP mosh pit (today's oxymoron). Jill Porter looks at what Bill Clinton and the Pope have in common (Hint: It has nothing to do with celebacy.) Our identical triplet cousin, William Bunch, tells why Clinton came to Philly in five easy pieces.
In Bucks County's congressional race, the GOP stoops to a new low with a brand of terror McCarthyism. Signe Wilkinson takes us to W.'s weapons lost and found in Iraq. The DN editorial board picks apart claims that Gov. Rendell is suppressing the military vote. What are the odds for next Tuesday? We bring in a Princeton mathematician to explain it all. That doesn't matter to the archbishop of Denver -- he has faith.
Nothing indicates panic in Bushworld more than a flashing red siren atop the Drudge Report. Tonight, the mega-popular site tries to knock down the big story of the week. That would be the disappearance of some 380 tons of high explosives from a facility south of Baghdad, explosives now being used to kill American G.I.s.
The story is said to be based on an NBC News report, although there's no link.
Let's set it up so we can tear it down:
The [New York Times] urgently reported on Monday how the Iraqi interim government has warned the United States and international nuclear inspectors that nearly 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives are now missing from one of Iraq's most sensitive former military installations.
Jumping on the [Times] exclusive, Dem presidential candidate John Kerry blasted the Bush administration for its failure to "guard those stockpiles."
...But tonight, NBC News reported, once: The 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives were already missing back in April 10, 2003 -- when U.S. troops arrived at the installation south of Baghdad!
An NBC News crew embedded with troops moved in to secure the Al-Qaqaa weapons facility on April 10, 2003, one day after the liberation of Iraq.
According to NBC News, the HMX and RDX explosives were already missing when the American troops arrived.
It is not clear why the [Times] failed to report the cache had been missing for 18 months -- and was reportedly missing before troops even arrived.
"The U.S. Army was at the sight one day after the liberation and the weapons were already gone," a top Republican blasted from Washington late Monday.
There's several holes in this account that you can drive a Bradley personnel carrier through. In fact, it's hard to know where to begin:
1) As numerous news accounts show, the al Qa Qaa facility was liberated by American troops not on April 10 but on April 3, 2003 -- one full week earlier that the NBC reporter is said to claim. This AP story, filed on April 5, describes some of what troops found there two days earlier.
2) As the articles also make clear, UN weapons inspectors had been all over the site, as recently as March 8, and had verified that the HMX and RDX was intact that winter. Why are these dates significant? Because the weapons inspectors were warned to leave Iraq on March 17. They were warned to leave not because of any imminent danger from Saddam Hussein's weakened regime, but because the Bush administration had already decided to launch the invasion there.
How can one say this any more clearly? These weapons were secured and carefully watched over by weapons inspectors on our side -- until we told them to leave. At some point after that, the weapons were stolen and used to kill American soldiers.
3) There substantial evidence that the entire story on Drudge is baloney, as discussed in detail tonight by Josh Marshall, who's been way ahead of the pack on this story.
He notes: A Pentagon "official who monitors developments in Iraq" told the Associated Press today that "US-led coalition troops had searched Al-Qaqaa in the immediate aftermath of the March 2003 invasion and confirmed that the explosives, which had been under IAEA seal since 1991, were intact."
That of course would mean that the explosives were not removed from the facility until some point after the war. And that would be in line with what the Iraqis two weeks ago told the IAEA.
What's more, Marshall points out that even if the weapons were removed in late March or early April, the U.S. government's various accounts of how it learned of the thefts are riddled with lies.
The only thing we're totally sure of is that there'll be more attempts like this to divert attention from what really happened between now and Nov. 2. Don't sink in a vat of Drudge.
Wonder who that "top Republican official" is.
The most powerful Republican in Philadelphia (how's that for an oxymoron) is now caught up in the GOP Block the Vote scandal here, all because of a comment he made to U.S. News & World Report.
The official in question is Pennsylvania House Speaker John Perzel, who represents a rowhouse neighborhood in Northeast Philly and is considered the most powerful GOP figure in Harrisburg. He's also very active in local politics. Here's what he told the magazine:
"The Kerry campaign needs to come out with humongous numbers here in Philadelphia. It's important for me to keep that number down."
Perzel's remark comes just a week after Republicans launched an unsuccessful effort to move -- at the last possible minute -- 63 polling places in Philadelphia, 53 of them in overwhelmingly black neighborhoods.
Campaign Extra! reached Perzel on his cell phone last night, and while he refused to respond directly to Democratic allegations that he wanted to suppress urban votes, he insisted he was only talking about boosting the GOP tally from 2000, when Bush received just 100,000 votes here. “Our goal is to get more Republians out this time than last time.”
OK. But as the article also notes: “Perzel is challenging many of the more than 100,000 registered Democrats in Philadelphia. His campaign office sifts through city databases for double registrations, people with the same names and same birthdates--but maybe different addresses--who are registered twice. He's finding plenty and filing challenges to them all. "
Democrats say urban vote suppression is exactly what Perzel is talking about. "Surely Perzel cannot be proud to belong to a party whose success depends on people not voting," said Rebecca Kirszner of the Democratic get-out-the-vote drive, America Coming Together.
It's just been announced that Chief Justice William Rehnquist is hospitalized for cancer. Here's the AP bulletin:
URGENT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist has been hospitalized with thyroid cancer.
The 80-year-old Rehnquist spent the weekend in Bethesda Naval Hospital in suburban Maryland, and underwent a tracheotomy on Saturday, the Supreme Court said Monday in a statement.
We all wish him a speedy recovery. But the political question instantly becomes, how will this news affect the race in its closing days? Control of the Supreme Court was a huge issue in the 2000 race, overshadowed now by Iraq and terrorism.
Will this indicator of possible changes on the High Court remind those suburban female "Soccer Moms" who broke for Clinton and Gore that the next president is likely to name at least one and possibly several new justices, and maybe a new chief? Or will it energize evangelical Christians who want to keep the court in conservative hands?
From the Smoking Gun:
While the Mafia is not in the habit of endorsing presidential candidates, two Colombo family soldiers have spoken with their bulging wallets--and they want four more years for the Bush/Cheney ticket.
"... Federal Election Commission records show that convicted felons John Staluppi and John Rosatti last year each gave the GOP candidates $2000 (the maximum individual donation). The FBI has identified Staluppi and Rosatti--multimillionaires who own auto dealerships in New York and Florida--as members of the Colombo gang.
The two Bush supporters are prized Colombo family "earners" who helped finance an insurgent Colombo faction that once sought to dethrone imprisoned boss Carmine "The Snake" Persico (that bloody early-90s mob war left more than a dozen wiseguys dead).
They later switched back to the Persico camp after a jailhouse heart-to-heart with their mob superior, one Dominick "Donny Shacks" Montemarano.
Can you believe those Philadelphia Democrats? Some of them had the nerve to die recently and not contact the Board of Elections before they left this earth.
In a story that's dull and ponderous even by usual Inquirer standards, the state Republican Party claims that Democratic voter fraud will run rampant in Philly because it mailed out cards to 130,000 registered voters, and about 10,000 of the cards were undeliverable.
It's hard to believe, but the voter rolls don't stay 100 percent on top of everybody who dies or moves, or lives in substandard housing. The problem's probably worse because of motor-voter laws and other moves to increase registration. But that doesn't mean that 10,000 people are out there lurking to vote twice. Seriously, it seems to be hard for people to find time to vote even once nowadays.
How silly is the state GOP? Listen to the Republican leader of Philadelphia County, Michael Meehan, whose family once ran things around here in the mid-20th Century and knows a thing or two about how things actually work here.
Meehan said his state counterparts were being "Chicken Littles" about a problem he doesn't think is as bad as they do. "The fear is that having names that shouldn't be on the rolls leaves open the possibility that skulduggery will be afoot," Meehan said. "I don't know they're necessarily fraudulent."
If you're reading this, you're probably suffering from Pre-Election Anxiety Disorder. Bush tells the World Tribune: 'The true history of my administration will be written 50 years from now'... Obviously, it's not being wrtitten today. The latest outrage: The mishandling of 380 tons of dangerous explosives in Iraq.
Forget those Eagles -- it's a "Super Sunday" for John Kerry -- on the endorsement front. Bob Herbert says there's a lot of bad news and that's bad news for Bush. Jimmy Carter says Bush has been exploiting 9/11 for political purposes. The LA Times tries to figure out who all these new voters really want. Newsweek tries to figure out if black voters are that excited about Kerry. But in the end, it's all about Ohio.
UPDATE: Does anyone else see the elephants in the woods?
Inside today's Daily News: You know all those polls showing how close the race is in Ohio? It doesn't get any closer in Ohio than this. Now, from Cleveland's Dawg Pound to Big Dawg in Philly. We never thought we'd see congressional candidate Lois Murphy and "The Big Nasty" in the same headline. Signe Wilkinson explains Bush's health-care plan. Flavia Colgan has the flu. And self-hater Michelle Malkin shows that she doesn't just hate her fellow Asian-Americans, but she hates her fellow women, too.
This is a story all Americans need to read between now and Nov. 2, courtesy of the New York Times:
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 24 - The Iraqi interim government has warned the United States and international nuclear inspectors that nearly 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives - used to demolish buildings, produce missile warheads and detonate nuclear weapons - are missing from one of Iraq's most sensitive former military installations.
The huge facility, called Al Qaqaa, was supposed to be under American military control but is now a no-man's land, still picked over by looters as recently as Saturday. United Nations weapons inspectors had monitored the explosives for many years, but White House and Pentagon officials acknowledge that the explosives vanished after the American invasion last year.
The White House said President Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, was informed within the past month that the explosives were missing. It is unclear whether President Bush was informed. American officials have never publicly announced the disappearance, but beginning last week they answered questions about it posed by The New York Times and the CBS News program "60 Minutes."
American weapons experts say their immediate concern is that the explosives could be used in major bombing attacks against American or Iraqi forces: the explosives, mainly HMX and RDX, could be used to produce bombs strong enough to shatter airplanes or tear apart buildings.
The bomb that brought down Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988 used less than a pound of the material of the type stolen from Al Qaqaa, and somewhat larger amounts were apparently used in the bombing of a housing complex in November 2003 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the blasts in a Moscow apartment complex in September 1999 that killed nearly 300 people.
Ever hear of a woman named "Bunny" Greenhouse? You will now. This former Pentagon official seems to be the Halliburton whistleblower that we've been waiting for.
In February 2003, less than a month before the U.S. invaded Iraq, Bunnatine (Bunny) Greenhouse walked into a Pentagon meeting and with a quiet comment started what could be the end of her career. On the agenda was the awarding of an up to $7 billion deal to a subsidiary of Houston-based conglomerate Halliburton to restore Iraq's oil facilities. On hand were senior officials from the office of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and aides to retired Lieut. General Jay Garner, who would soon become the first U.S. administrator in Iraq.
Read what happens next. You'll be dismayed -- but not very surprised.
Nine days, 11 states. Actually, some folks are voting already. And at least somebody from Boston is winning. Not in the polls, though. But this is the only tally that counts: the Electoral College. Assuming, of course, that everyone's vote is counted in Ohio. Or in Florida, for that matter. But Maureen Dowd is obsessing about geese and wolves. Did Jon Stweart announce his candidacy? Everybody's writing about him. Question of the day for W.: where was he in '73?
A lot of folks have been talking about "Animal Farm" in the wake of the "Wolves" and "Eagle" ads, but the Orwell motif that dominates this election is still "1984."
Now comes news from here in Pennsylvania that you can be barred from a Bush campaign rally and even bodily searched if you're identified as "a Democratic supporter." No signs, no yelling, no snarky T-shirts. Just a known Democrat (We guess they all look alike.)
"The spotters, and eventually police, asked the Democratic supporter to remove a jacket, a sweater and some other articles of clothing in what was described as basically a police search."
Even worse, a U.S. Army soldier who's bound for Iraq in two weeks -- a registered Republican, no less -- was barred from the rally for apparently associating with this Demo sympathizer.
It happened yesterday in Wilkes-Barre, and was written about in the Citizens' Voice newspaper there.
According to the account, the 27-year-old soldier from the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre region -- who didn't want to be identified by name for obvious reasons -- was an undecided voter who wanted to hear what the president had to say.
While waiting in line, he noticed a stranger standing alone and invited the person to stand with him. 'I didn't think that would be a problem,' he said. It turned out to be. Individuals from the Bush campaign spotted the individual with the soldier and identified the person as a Democratic supporter.
Amazingly, the unnamed Democrat -- who didn't complain about being searched -- had a ticket to the rally but still wasn't let in. And then it gets even creepier.
The Bush people claimed the Democrat wasn't on a "master list." The soldier asked to see this list but the organizers said "they didn't have it." But, they soon told the solider that he wasn't it, either -- and they turned him away from the event as well.
The story says that the soldier who came to the event undecided walked away vowing to volunteer for the Kerry campaign.
"I thought the whole Bush message was compassionate conservatism. I didn't see anything compassionate from the Bush people."
All week, we thought there couldn't be a dumber quote than Philadelphia GOP ward leader Matt Robb, who said during a failed effort to move polling places in Philly's black neighborhoods:
"It's predominantly, 100 percent black. I'm just not going in there to get a knife in my back."
But now we have a new winner -- James P. Trakas, a Republican co-chairman in Cuyahoga County. Here's how he explains why the GOP is paying hundreds of folks to challenge voters in Cleveland's mostly black areas.
"The organized left's efforts to, quote unquote, register voters - I call them ringers - have created these problems."
How better to sum up the GOP's utter contempt for the democratic process -- to describe thousands of people newly motivated to take part in the American political process as "quote, unquote, new voters." After Nov. 2, we hope some of these GOP vote blockers get sent to quote, unquote, jail.
Not Wolfpacks for Truth:
When the camera crew showed up, we wondered why they were all driving Hummers. Our agent assured us it was a Greenpeace commercial and they paid TWICE our hourly steak rate. Little did we know we were being tricked into this vicious campaign attack ad.
Meanwhile, reader Joseph Gumina sends us this:
It takes a special kind of nerve to use Gray Wolves as props in a campaign commercial when your administration has worked hard to scale back
federal protections of the species.
In 2003, the Bush administration approved the removal of the Gray Wolf from the endangered species list and handed management of the Gray Wolf to states which were openly hostile to its preservation. This move was condemned by conservationists and environmentalists alike as pre-mature and dangerous to the wolf's future.
Flaunting the isolated success of a Gray Wolf reintroduction program in Yellowstone National Park implemented under (guess who) President Clinton, the Bush Administration leapt to the conclusion that Gray Wolf populations all across the America were once again fit to be harassed, pilfered, and exterminated.
Read this:
The. Dullest. Blog. In. The. World.
The Guardian is abandoning its misguided-at-best, moronic-at-worst effort to lobby voters in Clark County, Ohio.
We love this, however:
One senior local politician, speaking off the record to avoid offending his neighbours, said: "They picked the wrong county for many reasons. One is, we're very parochial. When people talk about The Guardian of London, they think you mean London, Ohio, which is in the next-door county. Another is, we have some issues with literacy round here."
Is the apparent effort on college campuses in Pennsylvania to trick students into registering Republican a harmless scam, or something more devious? As we discussed in the Daily News today, it's clear that -- based on reports from two Pa. colleges 100 miles apart -- that registration tricks like telling students they were signing a petition to legalize medical marijuana were not an isolated prank.
We now have these reports from the Philly suburbs and from Indiana University of Pennsylvania on other side of the state. In addition, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has learned that something similar happened in Oregon -- there, students were led to believe they were signing a petition for lower car insurance rates.
The real question is whether the GOP registration changes -- which in theory won't prevent the victims from casting ballots on Nov. 2 -- is the handiwork of Sproul & Associates, a GOP-funded outfit that's been linked to a scandal in Nevada and was also active in Oregon and Pennsylvania. And was the motive money -- some workers were paid for each new GOP signup -- or something more nefarious.
"The populace, I think, is really scared. The Twin Towers -- if that's a prelude to what's going to come, we better do something."
-- Charles Stirzel of Richboro, Pa., a Bush supporter, quoted in today's Philadelphia Inquirer.
Quick -- name some famous presidential ads before this year. Let's see, there's LBJ's 1964 "Daisy" ad (with the mushroom cloud), Reagan's good-cop "Morning in America" and bad-cop "Bear" in the woods ad in 1984. What they had in common a Madison Avenue car-ad feel -- trying to evoke a mood rather than make an intellectual point.
Today, the Bush-Cheney campaign unveils a major new ad it calls, simply, "Wolves." It may become the most talked about spot of the 2004 race -- especially if Bush wins. Moody and ominous, the 30-second ad mines the shadowy light-and-dark world of a mysterious forest, with an occasional nano-second flash of danger, before showing the large pack (sleeper cell?) of wolves ready to attack at the first sign of weakness. At the end, the pack is rousing, ready to pounce on....the election of President Kerry?
"Wolves" is the Democrats' worst nightmare -- slick, evocative, memorable, and utterly misleading. Like Bush's other terrorism spots, it seeks to make hay of a Democratic effort to cut intelligence funding after "the first terrorist attack on America." How many discerning viewers know that's a reference to the 1993 attack that killed 6 people, not the devastating suicide attack of 9/11? More to the point, the ad debuts on the very day that the Washington Post rips apart the real Bush record on fighting al-Qaeda, marked by stupidity and blown chances.
Doesn't matter. In the rock, paper and scissors of presidential politics, fear is rock. And the Bush people are getting this message out. A new MSNBC-Knight-Ridder poll of Pennsylvania finds that -- in spite of a lagging economy -- terrorism and homeland security is now the No. 1 issue here. It's cited by 25 percent of voters, compared to 20 percent naming the economy (which was No. 1 last month) and 13 percent saying Iraq.
And who are these newly fearful voters supporting? Guess. In September, terrorism was the No. 1 issue for 36 percent of Bush voters. Now, it's the No. 1 issue of 45 percent of W.'s backers. (Overall, the Mason-Dixon poll had Bush up a point in Pennsylvania, while Kerry had been up a point here one month earlier).
Don't get played, Pennsylvanians. The main reason that al-Qaeda remains a threat to America is largely because of the inept and inadequate Bush response to it. Don't be fooled by a pack of wolves.
UPDATE: In an earlier version we misquoted the ad, it's actually the even more misleading "first terrorist attack on America." (thanks to alert reader John B. Gaffney.
The DNC (which probably knew the ad was coming -- reportedly it's been in the can for a while) has an amazingly rapid response called "Eagle," which contrasts a bird that knows when to change direction to an ostrich with its head in the sand. (You can decide who is who. Maybe one of the campaigns will re-release "Animal Farm.")
UPDATE II: Josh Marshall (who probably sent you here in the first place) views the ad and finds it not that scary, although he agrees it's very misleading. He also links to further refuting of the Kerry-weak-on-terror charge.
As part of their marathon drive to lose the White House, John Kerry's campaign takes a break from trashing daughters and wives of Dick Cheney and George W. Bush to go on an embarassingly phony goose-hunting photo op. While Kerry was out hunting geese, the Washington Post makes a compelling case that Bush screwed up a slightly more important hunt: For al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, Bush ventured outside the Daily News' 5-mile coverage radius to lobby Catholics in the Philly suburbs. And: Election lawsuits in Florida -- already? Sigh.
The Herald-Palladium of Benton Harbor, Mich., either has itself a major scoop -- former CIA boss calling the Iraq war "wrong" -- or a cub reporter who needs to go expense a tape recorder. Here's the October "no surprise" -- the inevitable column speculating that the Red Sox saga will help fellow Massachusettian (is that what you call them?) Kerry. Here's something that is surprising: A pundit who wants Kerry to be more like Al Gore. OK, now back to non-surprising stuff: Nobody likes Ralph Nader anymore. GOP Block the Vote 2004: Paul Krugman stays on the case. Burger King tells Sinclair Broadcast Group: "Have it your way."
Inside today's Daily "Go Eagles" News: Clout's Gar Joseph wonders if the Bush administration is on a hunt for Orange October. John Baer learns that when you're the only pundit in America to call Debate One for W., that you've got mail.
Our identical cousin, Trail Mix, has the New York Times saying nice things about "Stolen Honor" and other campaign absurdities. Elmer Smith has some interesting nuggets about ACORN. Do you think that Kerry and Bush are "Tweedledum" and "Tweedledee"? Jim Foster of Philadelphia does.
Sometimes the biggest surprise is no surprise:
WASHINGTON -- The US general who predicted Osama bin Laden would be captured or killed this year struck a decidedly cautionary note yesterday, saying he doesn't know when or if the mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks will be brought to justice....
"I retired my crystal ball and I don't make predictions any more in terms of when we're potentially going to get any of the figures out there," Barno told reporters at the Pentagon. He also declined to say whether US intelligence officials still believe, as it has been widely reported, that bin Laden is hiding in western Pakistan in the border region with Afghanistan.
"We obviously don't know where he is or we'd have him in custody," Barno said. "So it's probably not helpful to speculate since we really don't know."
More details are dribbling in about Bill Clinton's much-ballyhooed visit to Philly. The lunchtime rally with John Kerry (who?) will be held in Center City's Love Park, once the stomping ground of skateboarders and still occasional home to Democratic rallies. The gates for the event will open at 10 a.m.
Frankly, we're a little surprised at all the fuss. During his eight years as president, the Big Dog came to Philly more often than a traveling salesman for Cheese Whiz.
From a Knight-Ridder article, and noted by Kevin Drum:
President Bush will end his four-year term having fulfilled about 46 percent of the promises he made during the 2000 presidential campaign, according to an analysis by Knight Ridder.
A similar Knight Ridder analysis found that, during his first term, President Clinton had fulfilled about 66 percent of the 160 commitments that he made during his first presidential campaign.
Here's the question -- is Bush not keeping his promises a bad thing...or a good thing?
Do you believe in curses? No!!! (and why didn't the NY Post call it: "Best Sox I Ever Had"?) In boring news, the Bush campaign continues to pull out of Pennsylvania, with a visit today to Chester County. Will he still be wearing that box on his back? -- here's a great compendium of all the theories, conspiracy and otherwise. Of course, maybe Bush's biggest problem isn't a box, but a bubble.
When will the Democrats ship Teresa to an undisclosed location, before she opens her mouth again? Or will the Republicans steal the election before she can lose it for her husband? Not if all the Democrats who don't really exist go to the polls in Ohio. Speaking of leaps of faith, Maureen Dowd rips apart W's. Other women we love -- those Clear Channel-dissin', Sinclair boycottin' Dixie Chicks.
Inside today's Daily News: How lame was that now-failed GOP request to move 63 polling places in Philly? -- even the city Republican boss was against it. John Baer takes a visit to a scary place called Specterworld. Were you a fan of the TV show "SWAT"? -- then you might enjoy John Kerry's big plans for Nov. 3 and beyond. In the world-gone-mad department, the DN editorial board tells you how to buy "Stolen Honor," while Michael Smerconish defends Bill O'Reilly -- somebody had to do it.
Bill Clinton wasn't just the first black president, but the Arkansan (is that what you call them?) was also the first Philadelphia president. People here (except for a few people who regularly email us) loved the Big Dog, both for his appetites (wink, wink) and his genuine man-of-the-people shtick.
So maybe it's not surprising that Philadelphia will be the first place where Clinton -- recovering, of course, from heart bypass surgery -- will head when he hits the campaign trail for John Kerry sometime early next week. (The latest word is a lunchtime rally with Kerry on Monday.)
But does it make sense? Yes, there's a huge push here to energize the Democratic base in the city. But Kerry and Edwards have already been here a lot more than expected, and the state is beginning to trend Democratic as many thought it would. There could be other places where the ex-prez could be even more useful to the Dems.
Like Arkansas. Few experts had the Razorback State in play -- Gore lost there in 2000, although not by a lot -- but polls show that Kerry's in the running even without campaigning there. Survey USA has Bush up by 5 points -- 51-46 -- which is the exact tally that Gore lost there by four years ago. And Zogby has it even closer.
Surely BC's popularity should win some votes, in tandem with a strong Democratic Senate candidate, incumbent Blanche Lincoln. He can swing by Philly on his way home to Chappaqua.
Just as long as he stays away from Pat's and Geno's.
UPDATE: Apparently, someone's reading Campaign Extra! up in Chappaqua. Scoop-master Chris Brennan tells us that the Big Dog is indeed Arkansas bound, sometime after Philly.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette follows up on our report yesterday that Nathan Sproul and Associates -- the firm that the GOP hired to, allegedly, only register Republicans.
A lower portion of the form also advises the canvassers to ask undecided voters two questions: "Do you consider yourself pro-choice or pro life?" and "Are you worried about the Democrats raising taxes?" If voters say they are pro-life, the form says, "Ask if they are registered to vote. If they are pro-choice, say thank you and walk away."
The campaign of Arlen Specter is confirming what Campaign Extra! and Dave Davies of the Philadelphia Daily News reported late last week: That GOP political dirty trickster Roger Stone is the man behind those mysterious "Kerry-Specter" yard signs that started appearing in Philadelphia's blue-collar neighborhoods.
Specter campaign manager Christopher Nicholas said yesterday that he called Stone last weekend and asked him to put an end to the campaign. "I made the call Saturday morning," Nicholas said. "We asked him to stop and he agreed." Nicholas continues to insist he knew nothing of the independent effort until we called him.
Of course, they probably had Stone's number in their Rolodex -- since the controversial Stone (linked to a riot during the Florida recount and maybe even the apparently forged '60 Minutes' memos) was the manager of Specter's short-lived 1996 presidential campaign (which was so short-lived it ended in 1995).
(Explainer to our out-of-town fans: The yard signs help Specter because Kerry's going to get a whopping 80 percent of the Philly vote, and so the only way the "moderate" Bush-backing Specter can defeat Democrat Joe Hoeffel is with ticket splitting in the city's white neighborhoods. Kerry, of course, is actually backing Hoeffel.)
Today, the Daily News has an interesting new angle. It turns out that Stone's former business partner and an ex-Specter aide, Craig Snyder, had formed an independent group last spring to place ads on Christian radio in central Pennsylvania attacking Specter's primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, as being soft on abortion. Dirty trick? Well, Toomey was actually the anti-abortion candidate of the two.
Snyder says he hasn't worked with Stone in three years. That may well be true. But it sure is interesting how these ex-cronies of Specter just happen to know, on their own, how to help their pal get elected -- with signs that link a Bush supporter to John Kerry and with ads that accuse a candidate of being soft on abortion, when Specter allegedly supports abortion rights himself.
But then, politics makes strange bedfellows.
Before we get to anything else: What's the CIA hiding about 9/11? Best headline of the day: "Bush Receives Endorsement From Iran" (seriously). Dana Milbank profiles the Bush White House's guy-behind-the-guy-behind-the-guy. As part of their effort to woo young voters, Bush and Kerry are bickering over flu vaccine and Social Security.
Do Bush and Kerry actually (gasp) lie in some of their TV ads? Sinclair won't be airing the entire Kerry-slamming "Stolen Honor" -- which liberals are claiming as a victory even though they're still going to run a show saying Kerry caused POW torture. But revenge is sweet, as Sinclair stock continues to plummet. Condi Rice may be coming soon to a swing state near you -- and some experts think that's a dangerous precedent. (Not to be confused with a dangerous vice president.)
The NYT is worried about something else: Shadowy groups want people to go out and actually vote. Is President John Kerry worth $1 million to you? It is to Matt Damon (or so he claims). And William Safire defines chutzpah by accusing Kerry of fear mongering.
Inside today's Daily News: Elmer Smith slams the GOP for its block-the-vote campign here in Philly. How many times will we use the joke about Ralph's nadir? Depends on how many times the courts rule against him. In today's Trail Mix, we look at Dick Cheney and Jesus -- not necessarily at the same time. Kevin Scott of Willingboro calls the president on his 9/11 failures -- but then what do we know, we're a bunch of liberal crybabies?
You'll be shocked, shocked, to learn that Philadelphia isn't the only place in battleground state of Pennsylvania where Republican officials sought to move polling places in heavily Democratic neighborhoods at the last minute -- a move that could cause some confused voters not to cast ballots on Nov. 2.
Campaign Extra! is reporting (some of this appeared in our story in this morning's Daily News) that officials in Scranton, PA's Lackawanna County last week successfully moved 21 polling places over both citizen and Democratic objections. The GOP had just grabbed a 2-1 majority on the county's board of commissioners.
Unlike Philly, there's no racial angle. But Democrats say that each one of the polling places are in districts that vote at least 60 percent Democratic. The Republican majority that approved the changes says the move is merely an attempt to deal with the Americans with Disabilities Act (a similar argument was made for many of the GOP's proposed switches in Philly).
But that doesn't seem to be a factor in some of them. One of the axed polling places was an easily accessible first-floor building, that happened to be owned by the Lackawanna Democratic chair. (Here's a local account of the move.)
Voters were actually able to prevent four proposed moves -- including one (we're not making this up) that would have taken a polling place out of a convent with 130, mostly elderly, nuns. Still, opponents say the relocated voting spots will affect as many as 10,000 voters, and they fear that as many as 10 percent, or 1,000, might be thwarted by the moves.
Given the importance of the Pennsylvania votes, it's almost surprising that political stunts like this didn't surface earlier. Campaign Extra! also spoke yesterday with Holly McCullough, an official with the Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh, said that a couple of months ago the library was approached by representatives of a group calling itself America Votes seeking registration tables at branches.
She said that officials OK'd the planning - believing that the group was a nonpartisan outfit by the same name. Only later, she said yesterday, did officials learn that Kelly temporary-agency workers had been hired by an Arizona company called Sproul and Associates - and that the temps were asked to only sign up Bush voters.
"A Kelly worker said they were trained to ask people who they were voting for, and if they said Bush they'd give them a form," McCollough said.
This morning in the Daily News, Campaign Extra!'s cousin, Trail Mix, joined a growing obsession among the obsessive classes in speculating that George W. Bush will win the popular vote on Nov. 2, but John Kerry will triumph in the Electoral College.
Of course, 2000 showed that it's very possible in the 21st Century to win one and lose the other. There would be a rich irony if Bush were the victim in 2004 of the system that rewarded him in 2000. But the joke will probably be lost on Americans who'll face four more years of carping that their president wasn't truly elected.
Right now, the leading polls show the national horserace anywhere from even to an 8 point lead for Bush. But a tracking site called electoral-vote.com predicts that Kerry would win the election if it were held today with 284 electoral votes -- more than the 270 needed for victory.
How could Bush, who received more than half million less popular votes than Al Gore in 2000, be more popular this time but possibly lose votes in the Electoral College? Here's how -- by gaining lots of votes in non-battleground states, but losing ground in the states that actually determine the winner.
A quick guide:
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut: Bush should do much better here than in 2000. Blame the terrorists. Bush's response to the 9/11 attacks at the World Trade Center won him some converts in these three deep-blue Democratic states, especially among the now almost mythical "Security Moms" who are now more worried about al-Qaeda invading their kid's grade school than the Supreme Court invading their wombs. So Bush gains popular votes, but no electoral votes.
California: Gore won big here in 2000, but since then voters were so angered by their Democratic governor that they kicked him out of office and replaced him with a Republican who's very popular right now (even though that's partly for differing with Bush in so many issues). So again, more GOP popular votes, nothing in the Electoral College.
The Deep South: Every year, more of the oldtime "Yellow Dog Democrats" die or switch parties, making these conservative states more and more Republican. So what? Bush had these electoral votes already.
Florida: The Democrats need only gain 538 votes to win 25 27 electoral votes. Can they do that? You bet. Cubans aren't as mad at the D's as they were in 2000, over the Elian Gonzalez case. The Dems say they've registered scores of new voters here, and they're got more lawyers than a SEPTA bus accident to back that up.
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa: Rust never sleeps. These are the real battleground states and, unfortunately for Bush, they just happen to be the ones most hard-hit by the outsourcing of jobs overseas and the general decline of manaufacturing. And Ohio -- which has 20 big electoral votes -- and went narrowly for Bush in 2000 -- seems to be the most badly hit of them all. Will Kerry sweep here?
So let's review. Lots more votes for Bush in states that don't matter. A few more votes for Kerry in the few states that do matter. And a reversal of fortune from 2000 to 2004.
Who'll be asking to scrap the Electoral College in 2005?
You know Election Day must be getting close when people start listing five nightmare scenarios. Memo to John Kerry: Try to avoid speaking French when you're on the campaign trail. To make matters worse, the Times looks at whether Kerry exaggerates the Bush record, and says, "Oui." Having trouble making sense out of the polls. So is the New York Times. But that doesn't stop them from offering us another one. The LA Times also makes a run at explaining why polling is so screwed up. So does "The Mystery Pollster."
Here's a novel approach toward increasing voter registration, out of Ohio. If you want a more fair and balanced look at voter registration, the Washington Post has one of those. A journalist for the embattled Sinclair Broadcast Group discovers that his bosses can't handle the truth.
Al Gore finally gets the hang of this running for president thing, four years too late. Do you feel a....oh, nevermind: Here's Paul Krugman writing about the draft. Generals engage in "Crossfire": On the right, Tommy Franks, while on the left (sort of) John Abizaid. And finally, here's something for you ladies who can't get enough of John Edwards, or his hair. It will distract you from this morning's bad news out of Iraq.
