It all comes down to 'Snakes'

Looks like Hollywood has only one bullet left in its chamber — "Talladega Nights" hung on to the top spot, but took a 50 percent hit.

It won’t have the legs to catch “Pirates,” so that leaves only the cult-hit-in-the-making “Snakes on a Plane” to challenge. “Snakes” would have to open big, then hold on to its audience the following week, and that looks like a long shot.

It’s never over until the fat lady sings, though, so stay tuned.

'Pirates' wins gold

Barring some kind of “Snakes on a Plane” or “Talladega Nights” miracle, “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest” is certain to emerge as the championship round winner of Summer Movie Madness. In its fifth weekend of release, “Pirates” posted $11 million, edging the $10.7 million posted by “Cars” — well ahead of the other contenders.

All that remains to be seen is which of you Pirate-backers chose the most opening-round winners. (Yes, it could all come down to the few thousand dollars that separated “Little Man” from “You, Me and Dupree.”)

All but one of the opening round matches have been decided, and although it’s possible a decisive winner has emerged already (you’ll know when we know), there is one more remaining opening-rounder to make the results complete — “Snakes” and “World Trade Center.”

All will be known by Aug. 21.

It isn't over til the fey pirate sings

In the Life Imitates Art Dept: Never count Jack Sparrow out.

After a 54 percent week two drop placed “Pirates” in jeopardy of losing the long-run race to “Cars,” “Pirates” rallied in week three to post a healthier 43 percent drop off. At that rate, it should post a week five number somewhere in the $12 million range, and edge “Cars” by $2 million.

As Movie Madness surmised, the “Pirates” box office curve would flatten a bit — a pattern typical of family films with all-ages appeal.

Also, there are no remaining tentpole pictures to grab screens away from “Pirates” — the closest thing is “Talladega Nights,” which doesn’t even open until Aug. 4, giving “Pirates” another free ride this weekend.

Flies in the ointment?

“The Ant Bully” might pull a little of the family audience away this weekend, but look how well “Pirates” stacked up against “Monster House,” which posted a strong number.

“Pirates” crushed “Lady In the Water,” in what some might have seen as a battle of horror-ish movies. Except that one is actually a comedy, the other a fable. And if “Pirates” really is being received by audiences as an absurdist comedy rather than a horror adventure, as we suspect is true, it may actually run into “Talladega Nights” at exactly the wrong time.

Its big week five match-up with “Cars” will occur just as Johnny Depp goes goofball to goofball with Will Ferrell, who will probably open 3,000 screens.

Put another way: It’s not over yet.

Is it yo ho ho-ver?

"Pirates of the Carribean" just set the all-time 10-day box office record ($258 million), so you’re thinking: there's your winner.

Yet the numbers also show vulnerability in what figures to be its long-term battle with "Cars."

"Pirates" took a 54 percent hit weekend-to-weekend, dropping from $132 million to $62 million. Follow that progression five weeks out, and you get weekend booty amounting to $7-$8 million, versus the $10 that “Cars “ has already posted.

But such projections probably aren’t worth much. "Cars" itself reversed a precipitious second-weekend drop to become a quality long-term earner. "Pirates," a family film, is positioned to keep pulling in that durable all-ages audience.

And there’s this: "Pirates'" weekend numbers are skewed by the fact that it's earning so damn much money DURING THE WEEK. Like $10 million to $20 million per day. With so many families on vacation, every day is Saturday.

Does that help "Pirates" or hurt it? Don't know, but it’s still earning $15,000 per screen, in full saturation all over the country.

"Cars" backers have reason to be hopeful, but we don't know if we'd bet against "Pirates" at this point. Next week may tell the tale.

In other news: This week's also-ran race between four and five seeds "Little Man" and "Dupree" was just as close as our genius seeding committee predicted: "Man" posted $21.7 million, "Dupree" posted $21.3 million.
Could be a similar dust-up this week between "Lady in the Water" and "My Super-Ex Girlfriend," pitting M. Night Shyamalan believers against those looking for laughs. Fly in the ointment — Kevin Smith's "Clerks" sequel opens, which could take a bite out of "Girlfriend."

'Pirates' HUGE, but will it last?

This just in: “Superman” is NOT faster than a speeding bullet, because “Pirates of the Caribbean” IS a speeding bullet, and it crushed the man of steel this past weekend.

“Pirates” broke the all-time non-holiday weekend record and grossed almost as much in one weekend ($132 million) as “Superman Returns” has ($140 million) in all ten days of its release. The “Superman” gross includes a paltry $21 million this past weekend, big enough to beat “Devil Wears Prada,” but small enough to leave the door open to some sort of “Lady in the Water” (buzz at NY press junket was mixed) or “Super Ex-Girlfriend” surprise. (Don’t expect much in this bracket from “Miami Vice” — the studio has pushed press screenings back to the evening of July 27th, to keep reviews out of the July 28 papers.)

In Summer Movie Madness “Pirates” had the week off (not an off week) — it was to go up against “Pulse,” but that movie was bumped so “Pirates” was awarded a forfeit. Week two will give us a much better idea, but even if it loses a catastrophic portion of its massive opening audience, it’s still going to pull at least $50-60 million, and will waltz to what figures to be a showdown with “Talladega Nights” down the road. And “Pirates” is the last of the tentpole blockbusters — there’s really nothing out there to take its legs out, the way “Pirates” undercut “Superman.”

The looming question: can “Pirates” or anybody beat that $10 million week five “Cars” number? “Cars” didn’t open great, but after an unimpressive week two, it’s been tenacious in holding an audience (only a 29 percent drop this past weekend).

It’s been a lame summer for family films, and that helped “Cars.” But that also helps “Pirates,” which is family-ish and extraordinarily popular among young boys, judging by the snotty email we've received.

“Superman” is not going to be at $10 million in week five. But “Pirates” — that’s another story.