Blogs Office: Who'd you pick?

May 08, 2006

Who'd you pick?

This is a blog for players of Summer Movie Madness, where Gary Thompson and Tattle's Howard Gensler will weigh in on how the movies are doing, and you can do the same.

To start with, take a look at the bracket to refresh your memory, and then go ahead and share with the world the reasoning behind your own choices to win or lose this summer. Make some predictions! After all, everything is time-stamped so you can triumphantly point it out to people later, or, as the case may be, not.

Posted by kurtasg at May 8, 2006 11:34 AM

Comments

As both a sports nut and a movie fan, I really enjoyed your Summer Movie Madness contest which I've entered. Just for fun, I thought I'd discuss your brackets the same way a college hoops fan would dissect the field of 64. Regarding which films will wind up in the Final Four, you got it right except for the "Impossible" region as X-Men 3 (I'm also a huge comic book fan, and we comic book geeks simply call it X3) will represent this region instead of Mission Impossible 3. Never underestimate the spending power of comic book fans when their favorite comic makes it onto the big screen, and the X-Men franchise has been a gold mine from day one, making a huge star out the previously unknown Hugh Jackman (Wolverine). In fact, if it weren't for The DaVinci Code and all the hype it's generated, I'd have Superman Returns winning it all.

As for the brackets themselves, I think the Impossible region is the toughest with MI-3, X3 and Poseidon, which I think will be a summer sleeper and should've been the number 3 seed over The Break-Up who's only saving grace is Jennifer Aniston and the ongoing soap opera between her, Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie and now Vince Vaughn, her co-star in that flick which will lose to Jack Black's Nacho Libre. You read it here first. Going over to the "Code" region, the 4 versus 5 game is always tricky, and while I liked the original version of The Omen, a flick like that is better suited for fall and winter instead of summer, so I think it'll lose to the animated Over The Hedge. I do have an upset in this region as I've got the third Fast & Furious movie (7 seed) beating out the 2 seed, Cars. Meanwhile, The DaVinci Code will run over everything. I'm eager to see it, even though I can't stand Tom Hanks.

In the "Super" region, Superman Returns will easily clobber everything here. Miami Vice should do well mainly because of it's star power, M. Night Shamartist's latest fraud (I lost all respect for him after the ripoff that was The Village) will reach the second round before being whacked by Vice, the rest is just dreck, including A Scanner Darkly. When I saw the trailer for that last month, my first thought was, "WTF?" I think you know what that means. Lastly, the "Pirates" region is the weakest of the lot. Johnny Depp will pillage and plunder here, weakly challenged by the U.S. version of a Japanese horror flick (Pulse) and a dopey NASCAR comedy among others. Now, Snakes on a Plane looks interesting and is quirky enough to succeed, but World Trade Center I'll avoid like the plague as it's still too soon for any sort of movie based on the tragedy of 9/11. I have that losing in the first round to Snakes.

Finally, I had a devil of a time picking a winner in the championship round. Comic book geeks will come out in force for Superman while DaVinci hype, paired with Tom Hanks' drawing power will sell out for that. In the end, I went with DaVinci as my winner, but it'll be a damn close race for certain. My top ten box office picks will be, as follows:

1) DaVinci Code
2) Superman Returns
3) X3
4) Pirates
5) MI-3
6) Miami Vice
7) Poseidon
8) Snakes on a Plane
9) Lady in the Water (grudgingly)
10) Over The Hedge

It should be a great summer movie season. Take care and have a great day!

Posted by: Jeffrey C. Branch at May 9, 2006 07:59 AM

MI:3 Though maligned has a soft schedule for three weeks. Although Da Vinci code is competition, it isn't an action adventure. More of a historical romp like national treasure with Nicholas Cage. X Men 3 will make more money than people anticipate because it will draw in more families and kids than MI:3 and its the only draw of its kind on Memorial Day weekened. Nacho Libre is the sleeper of the summer. Jack Black in a comedy is money plus teamed with the director of Napolean Dynamite, the younger x and y generation will eat this up. Leading to progoniscators to ponder where did this hit come from? You heard it hear first. Finally M. Night is a fraud. I suspected this after Unbreakable. Had it confirmed in Signs. Was delivered in the Village.
His movie will tank. The romantic comedy or romcom My Super Ex Girlfriend will make more money. One last thing, Superman Returns is the 800lb gorilla in the room. No one says it but if Batman Begins makes 200 million than Superman makes 300 to 400 off of general purpose(g.p.) alone.

Posted by: Justin Byrd at May 13, 2006 04:09 PM

Ahh! It was good to have read that someone else is dissatisfied with M. Night Shamartist like I am. Signs activated my b.s. circuits as well. You've got these frightening alens who come millions of light years from God only knows where to invade the Earth and yet, they can't get past ordinary wooden doors? I mean, where were the ray guns? And water kills them? Talk about hokey! And don't get me started on The Village! I was so pissed after that catastrophe ended, I wanted to storm the box office and demand a refund. Talk about consumer fraud! Well, to quote that famous line from an episode of the original Star Trek, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me!" I won't go anywhere near Lady in the Water! That's also got fraud written all over it. While Justin is right that Superman Returns will be a beast, I jsut have a feeling that Tom Hanks will be his kryptonite with The DaVinci Code. Just a hunch.

Posted by: Jeffrey Branch at May 15, 2006 03:58 AM

I, too, have been disappointed in M. Night's offerings since the Sixth Sense. However, we don't fill these brackets out based on what we like, but what general audiences will like. If M. Night's been properly chastened by the backlash to Signs and the Village, and Lady is decent, the word-of-mouth machine could result in this film making some noise this summer. People love horror/suspense films, which always seem to do well and draw a diverse audience (young, old, married, people on dates), and M. Night, agree or not, has an aura of macabre/suspense around him that audiences eat up. His movies have made $1.5 billion, and the crowd at the theater I was in gasped and tittered excitedly when his name appeared after the Lady trailer. Plus, it looks to have some soft competition, at least in the early rounds, so it could just be a sleeper hit that goes deep into the brackets to tussle with the Man of Steel himself.

Posted by: Walt B. at May 18, 2006 06:40 PM

I also thought the seeding was fairly good -- but no one ever gets everything right. Life would be no fun without upsets. So the key to picking the winners is correctly predicting what the upsets will be.
I figured Tom Cruise burn-out would eventually hurt MI3. I figured people would already be tired of Poseidon after the unnecessary TV remake. Though I still think I was right about MI3 and Poseidon, I made the mistake of thinking Lindsay Lohan could still deliver. Now I'm just waiting for X3 to stomp all over the rest of the region -- as I predicted.
The Coded region appears to be the most difficult. Films like Cars, Click, and Over the Hedge may all be stronger than most of what passes for competition in the Super and Pirated regions. Nonetheless, and despite not loving the film, I'm still rooting for the Da Vinci Code to go all the way.
I think #2 seeds Miami Vice and Talledega Nights will both tank fairly quickly. I always root for M. Night because I loved Sixth Sense and because he's local -- even if Signs and the Village were both big disappointments. So I think Lady in the Water beats Miami Vice. And Snakes on a Plane beats Talladega Nights. Then both films get crushed by Superman 3 & Pirates 2, respectively.
In the final four, I expect three sequels in X3, Super 3 (actually 5), and Pirates 2. I always root for originals, so all hail the Da Vinci Code! Too bad the film couldn't generate more controversy as such publicity usually helps. It's a shame the filmmakers seem intent on backing away from everything controversial about the book. Yet Dan Brown is an executive producer! Guess he doesn't believe in his theories either. It was strange, however, to hear lead character Robert Langdon disown theories he'd espoused in the book.

Posted by: Andy Seawell at May 22, 2006 07:15 PM

I give up!!! The season has not even started and we have been bombarded with Kiddie movies that make more sense the adult flicks as far as box office draw. Now don't get me wrong.I love kids. I have one . But how the devil am I suppose to review and enjoy these films if parents continue bring the babies in strollers and the child that does not know how to behave in the dark while others are trying to view? Going after discount showtimes is outta the question.As far as I'm concerned no movie made in this century is worth more than 7.00 and that is 2.00 more than I care to pay.

Someone release Snakes On A Plane ..now so I can say : You have got to see this movie! ...or save your pennies

See you in the dark

Miz Val

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