June 19, 2006

It's all about the match-ups

So this is why people in the NCAA complain about first round match-ups. “Nacho Libre,” which has the feel of a movie with some box office legs, is already out of the game.

It posted a strong opening of $27.5 million, nearly toppling the mega-hyped “Cars,” but still lost its first round Movie Madness match-up with fast-fading “The Break-up” ($39 million).

Hey, don’t blame us. Blame the Hollywood genius who opened “Nacho” opposite “Fast and Furious 3,” and week-two “Cars,” essentially halving the kiddie and teen audiences from which it needs to draw.

Incidentally, “Fast and Furious 3” (which opened to fair reviews and $24 million) is out as well, toppled by a week one-er with “Cars” ($60 million).

All of this boils town to the week-three match-up between “Cars” and “The Da Vinci Code,” and holy cow is it going to be close. “Cars” got hammered - dropping nearly 50 percent to roughly $32 million. If it drops another 50, it’s weekend three tally will be $16 million or so — it needs $19 million to beat “Code.”

Given the influence of crowd-pleasing “Nacho,” and the new Adam Sandler movie “Click,” we’d say it looks grim for “Cars.”

But look . . . up in the sky. It’s a bird. It’s a plane. No, it’s the movie that’s probably going to knock the crap out of all the other players. Trade reviews of “Superman Returns” are in today, and they’re ecstatic. Variety and Hollywood Reporter are predicting all-time B.O. numbers for the movie.

Movie Madness will check it out Friday. We’ll give you a heads up.

Posted by Gary at June 19, 2006 12:38 PM
Comments

Yeah, and it's no coincidence that I stink at filling out NCAA brackets too. I didn't think Cars would top Fast & Furious. Boy, was I wrong about that. I also figured Nacho Libre would best The Break-Up as well. Urgh! So, from the "Code" region, Click probably won't stand much of a chance against Cars, so DaVinci will still win that region. I've seen trailers for Superman Returns on TV, on the Internet and in theaters and it's going to be a monster. Call me crazy, but 300 million at the box office wouldn't be an exaggeration right now.

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