Is it yo ho ho-ver?

"Pirates of the Carribean" just set the all-time 10-day box office record ($258 million), so you’re thinking: there's your winner.

Yet the numbers also show vulnerability in what figures to be its long-term battle with "Cars."

"Pirates" took a 54 percent hit weekend-to-weekend, dropping from $132 million to $62 million. Follow that progression five weeks out, and you get weekend booty amounting to $7-$8 million, versus the $10 that “Cars “ has already posted.

But such projections probably aren’t worth much. "Cars" itself reversed a precipitious second-weekend drop to become a quality long-term earner. "Pirates," a family film, is positioned to keep pulling in that durable all-ages audience.

And there’s this: "Pirates'" weekend numbers are skewed by the fact that it's earning so damn much money DURING THE WEEK. Like $10 million to $20 million per day. With so many families on vacation, every day is Saturday.

Does that help "Pirates" or hurt it? Don't know, but it’s still earning $15,000 per screen, in full saturation all over the country.

"Cars" backers have reason to be hopeful, but we don't know if we'd bet against "Pirates" at this point. Next week may tell the tale.

In other news: This week's also-ran race between four and five seeds "Little Man" and "Dupree" was just as close as our genius seeding committee predicted: "Man" posted $21.7 million, "Dupree" posted $21.3 million.
Could be a similar dust-up this week between "Lady in the Water" and "My Super-Ex Girlfriend," pitting M. Night Shyamalan believers against those looking for laughs. Fly in the ointment — Kevin Smith's "Clerks" sequel opens, which could take a bite out of "Girlfriend."

Posted by Gary at July 17, 2006 01:29 PM