In the Life Imitates Art Dept: Never count Jack Sparrow out.
After a 54 percent week two drop placed “Pirates” in jeopardy of losing the long-run race to “Cars,” “Pirates” rallied in week three to post a healthier 43 percent drop off. At that rate, it should post a week five number somewhere in the $12 million range, and edge “Cars” by $2 million.
As Movie Madness surmised, the “Pirates” box office curve would flatten a bit — a pattern typical of family films with all-ages appeal.
Also, there are no remaining tentpole pictures to grab screens away from “Pirates” — the closest thing is “Talladega Nights,” which doesn’t even open until Aug. 4, giving “Pirates” another free ride this weekend.
Flies in the ointment?
“The Ant Bully” might pull a little of the family audience away this weekend, but look how well “Pirates” stacked up against “Monster House,” which posted a strong number.
“Pirates” crushed “Lady In the Water,” in what some might have seen as a battle of horror-ish movies. Except that one is actually a comedy, the other a fable. And if “Pirates” really is being received by audiences as an absurdist comedy rather than a horror adventure, as we suspect is true, it may actually run into “Talladega Nights” at exactly the wrong time.
Its big week five match-up with “Cars” will occur just as Johnny Depp goes goofball to goofball with Will Ferrell, who will probably open 3,000 screens.
Put another way: It’s not over yet.