Not a great weekend for those who backed “Click” as an upset special in the “Cars” bracket.
Adam Sandler’s movie posted $40 million, not a big number. Enough to beat “Waist Deep,” but, factoring in a 40 percent decline, surely not big enough to push past “Cars” ($33 million second week) in a week two showdown.
That means it’s all about “Cars” and “Code,” and “Cars” posted a healthy $22 million this past weekend to easily best “Da Vinci’s” $18 million.
Looks like “Cars” in this bracket, barring some unforeseen “Click” surprise. “Click” has the youngish male comedy field to itself for the near future (“Nacho Libre” is tanking), but “Superman Returns” is arriving Tuesday night, and it promises to blow most other movies to bits. (Also, “Click” sucks.)
How is “Superman?” Pretty darn good. The only box office handicap I see: it’s also pretty darn long. Two hours, 24 minutes. That’s fewer showings per screen, but it’s going to be on so many screens, maybe it won’t matter. Tough sit for a little kid, though.
Bold prediction: “Superman Returns” will beat “A Scanner Darkly.” Handily!
The chosen format of pairing down-the-road box office results has turned out to be a great equalizer, especially as so many movies have done such a bad job holding on to their audiences. "Cars," for instance, beat "Code" by dropping just 33 percent from week two, a pretty good number in the scheme of things.
So this is why people in the NCAA complain about first round match-ups. “Nacho Libre,” which has the feel of a movie with some box office legs, is already out of the game.
It posted a strong opening of $27.5 million, nearly toppling the mega-hyped “Cars,” but still lost its first round Movie Madness match-up with fast-fading “The Break-up” ($39 million).
Hey, don’t blame us. Blame the Hollywood genius who opened “Nacho” opposite “Fast and Furious 3,” and week-two “Cars,” essentially halving the kiddie and teen audiences from which it needs to draw.
Incidentally, “Fast and Furious 3” (which opened to fair reviews and $24 million) is out as well, toppled by a week one-er with “Cars” ($60 million).
All of this boils town to the week-three match-up between “Cars” and “The Da Vinci Code,” and holy cow is it going to be close. “Cars” got hammered - dropping nearly 50 percent to roughly $32 million. If it drops another 50, it’s weekend three tally will be $16 million or so — it needs $19 million to beat “Code.”
Given the influence of crowd-pleasing “Nacho,” and the new Adam Sandler movie “Click,” we’d say it looks grim for “Cars.”
But look . . . up in the sky. It’s a bird. It’s a plane. No, it’s the movie that’s probably going to knock the crap out of all the other players. Trade reviews of “Superman Returns” are in today, and they’re ecstatic. Variety and Hollywood Reporter are predicting all-time B.O. numbers for the movie.
Movie Madness will check it out Friday. We’ll give you a heads up.
If you were one of the "Movie Madness" prognosticators who went out on a limb and picked the second "Pirates of the Caribbean" to beat "Pulse" in a week one showdown, you are correct.
"Pulse" has been moved to September.
This move should affect exactly zero brackets.
Beatable. That's how "Cars" now looks for its round three matchup against "The Da Vinci Code," given its $62 million opening, but it's going to be close.
The numbers for "Code" have been dropping fast, but it had a higher opening that "Cars." The key will be "Cars" second-weekend numbers, and the signs are hopeful for Disney-Pixar. Reviews were mixed, but audience surveys indicate that 92 percent rated the movie highly (compared to 49 percent for "The Break Up"). Animated family films tend to take less of a week-to-week hit than most other genres, so "Cars" still looks strong.
"The Break Up," incidentally, took a pretty hard fall - dropping nearly 50 percent to $20 million. It will be hard-pressed to match the $15 million week three number for "X-Men; The Last Stand."
Someone's a star -- the only question is whether it is Vince Vaughn or Jennifer Aniston.
My money's on Vince, whose comedy winning streak is now four ( "Old School" "Dodgeball" "The Wedding Crashers") after a $38-million opening that left "The Break Up" atop the box office, beating "X-Men: The Last Stand."
The numbers shocked Hollywood -- "The Break Up" had been forecast to open lower, "X-Men" to hold more of its audience. But moviegoers avoided the mutants in droves -- it lost a whopping 67 percent of its audience.
Is "The Last Stand" suddenly vulnerable? Its $34 million is still good enough to beat MI3 and probably "The Break-Up" in its bracket, but if it drops another 50 percent to $17 million in week three...does anyone have a read on "Nacho Libre?" If it has the cult duration of its director's last movie ("Napoleon Dynamite"), plus the built-in brand loyalty and whatever Jack Black brings to the table, it could be formidable.
Meanwhile, the summer's true word of mouth hit continues to be "Over The Hedge," which lost only 20 percent of its audience to take in another $20 million. It grossed more this week than "The Da Vinci Code," but won't beat "Code" in that bracket. And the party for "Hedge" will be over this week, when "Cars" opens.
The "Hedge" numbers bode well for "Cars" -- a good family film looks like it will have legs this season, looking down the road to a week four match-up between "Cars" and "Code."