It won’t have the legs to catch “Pirates,” so that leaves only the cult-hit-in-the-making “Snakes on a Plane” to challenge. “Snakes” would have to open big, then hold on to its audience the following week, and that looks like a long shot.

It’s never over until the fat lady sings, though, so stay tuned.

All that remains to be seen is which of you Pirate-backers chose the most opening-round winners. (Yes, it could all come down to the few thousand dollars that separated “Little Man” from “You, Me and Dupree.”)

All but one of the opening round matches have been decided, and although it’s possible a decisive winner has emerged already (you’ll know when we know), there is one more remaining opening-rounder to make the results complete — “Snakes” and “World Trade Center.”

All will be known by Aug. 21.

After a 54 percent week two drop placed “Pirates” in jeopardy of losing the long-run race to “Cars,” “Pirates” rallied in week three to post a healthier 43 percent drop off. At that rate, it should post a week five number somewhere in the $12 million range, and edge “Cars” by $2 million.

As Movie Madness surmised, the “Pirates” box office curve would flatten a bit — a pattern typical of family films with all-ages appeal.

Also, there are no remaining tentpole pictures to grab screens away from “Pirates” — the closest thing is “Talladega Nights,” which doesn’t even open until Aug. 4, giving “Pirates” another free ride this weekend.

Flies in the ointment?

“The Ant Bully” might pull a little of the family audience away this weekend, but look how well “Pirates” stacked up against “Monster House,” which posted a strong number.

“Pirates” crushed “Lady In the Water,” in what some might have seen as a battle of horror-ish movies. Except that one is actually a comedy, the other a fable. And if “Pirates” really is being received by audiences as an absurdist comedy rather than a horror adventure, as we suspect is true, it may actually run into “Talladega Nights” at exactly the wrong time.

Its big week five match-up with “Cars” will occur just as Johnny Depp goes goofball to goofball with Will Ferrell, who will probably open 3,000 screens.

Put another way: It’s not over yet.

Yet the numbers also show vulnerability in what figures to be its long-term battle with "Cars."

"Pirates" took a 54 percent hit weekend-to-weekend, dropping from $132 million to $62 million. Follow that progression five weeks out, and you get weekend booty amounting to $7-$8 million, versus the $10 that “Cars “ has already posted.

But such projections probably aren’t worth much. "Cars" itself reversed a precipitious second-weekend drop to become a quality long-term earner. "Pirates," a family film, is positioned to keep pulling in that durable all-ages audience.

And there’s this: "Pirates'" weekend numbers are skewed by the fact that it's earning so damn much money DURING THE WEEK. Like $10 million to $20 million per day. With so many families on vacation, every day is Saturday.

Does that help "Pirates" or hurt it? Don't know, but it’s still earning $15,000 per screen, in full saturation all over the country.

"Cars" backers have reason to be hopeful, but we don't know if we'd bet against "Pirates" at this point. Next week may tell the tale.

In other news: This week's also-ran race between four and five seeds "Little Man" and "Dupree" was just as close as our genius seeding committee predicted: "Man" posted $21.7 million, "Dupree" posted $21.3 million.
Could be a similar dust-up this week between "Lady in the Water" and "My Super-Ex Girlfriend," pitting M. Night Shyamalan believers against those looking for laughs. Fly in the ointment — Kevin Smith's "Clerks" sequel opens, which could take a bite out of "Girlfriend."

“Pirates” broke the all-time non-holiday weekend record and grossed almost as much in one weekend ($132 million) as “Superman Returns” has ($140 million) in all ten days of its release. The “Superman” gross includes a paltry $21 million this past weekend, big enough to beat “Devil Wears Prada,” but small enough to leave the door open to some sort of “Lady in the Water” (buzz at NY press junket was mixed) or “Super Ex-Girlfriend” surprise. (Don’t expect much in this bracket from “Miami Vice” — the studio has pushed press screenings back to the evening of July 27th, to keep reviews out of the July 28 papers.)

In Summer Movie Madness “Pirates” had the week off (not an off week) — it was to go up against “Pulse,” but that movie was bumped so “Pirates” was awarded a forfeit. Week two will give us a much better idea, but even if it loses a catastrophic portion of its massive opening audience, it’s still going to pull at least $50-60 million, and will waltz to what figures to be a showdown with “Talladega Nights” down the road. And “Pirates” is the last of the tentpole blockbusters — there’s really nothing out there to take its legs out, the way “Pirates” undercut “Superman.”

The looming question: can “Pirates” or anybody beat that $10 million week five “Cars” number? “Cars” didn’t open great, but after an unimpressive week two, it’s been tenacious in holding an audience (only a 29 percent drop this past weekend).

It’s been a lame summer for family films, and that helped “Cars.” But that also helps “Pirates,” which is family-ish and extraordinarily popular among young boys, judging by the snotty email we've received.

“Superman” is not going to be at $10 million in week five. But “Pirates” — that’s another story.

But, oh, that 150-minute running time. Or maybe it was the "Superman Is Gay" stories. Or the "Superman is Jesus" stories. Whatever, the man who can bust blocks with his fists didn't put up the blockbuster numbers everyone expected with an estimated $52.6 million opening three-day weekend.

Will it have legs?

'Cars' didn't have the killer opening weekend either, but its slow-and-steady pace has earned it a trip to the finals over the higher-grossing "Da Vinci Code" and "X-Men: The Last Stand."

The other movie to move ahead this week is "The Devil Wears Prada," whose suprising $27 million opening crushed the opening weekend of "The Lake House."

Now, all eyes turn to "Pirates," opening this Friday.

Adam Sandler’s movie posted $40 million, not a big number. Enough to beat “Waist Deep,” but, factoring in a 40 percent decline, surely not big enough to push past “Cars” ($33 million second week) in a week two showdown.

That means it’s all about “Cars” and “Code,” and “Cars” posted a healthy $22 million this past weekend to easily best “Da Vinci’s” $18 million.

Looks like “Cars” in this bracket, barring some unforeseen “Click” surprise. “Click” has the youngish male comedy field to itself for the near future (“Nacho Libre” is tanking), but “Superman Returns” is arriving Tuesday night, and it promises to blow most other movies to bits. (Also, “Click” sucks.)

How is “Superman?” Pretty darn good. The only box office handicap I see: it’s also pretty darn long. Two hours, 24 minutes. That’s fewer showings per screen, but it’s going to be on so many screens, maybe it won’t matter. Tough sit for a little kid, though.

Bold prediction: “Superman Returns” will beat “A Scanner Darkly.” Handily!

The chosen format of pairing down-the-road box office results has turned out to be a great equalizer, especially as so many movies have done such a bad job holding on to their audiences. "Cars," for instance, beat "Code" by dropping just 33 percent from week two, a pretty good number in the scheme of things.

It posted a strong opening of $27.5 million, nearly toppling the mega-hyped “Cars,” but still lost its first round Movie Madness match-up with fast-fading “The Break-up” ($39 million).

Hey, don’t blame us. Blame the Hollywood genius who opened “Nacho” opposite “Fast and Furious 3,” and week-two “Cars,” essentially halving the kiddie and teen audiences from which it needs to draw.

Incidentally, “Fast and Furious 3” (which opened to fair reviews and $24 million) is out as well, toppled by a week one-er with “Cars” ($60 million).

All of this boils town to the week-three match-up between “Cars” and “The Da Vinci Code,” and holy cow is it going to be close. “Cars” got hammered - dropping nearly 50 percent to roughly $32 million. If it drops another 50, it’s weekend three tally will be $16 million or so — it needs $19 million to beat “Code.”

Given the influence of crowd-pleasing “Nacho,” and the new Adam Sandler movie “Click,” we’d say it looks grim for “Cars.”

But look . . . up in the sky. It’s a bird. It’s a plane. No, it’s the movie that’s probably going to knock the crap out of all the other players. Trade reviews of “Superman Returns” are in today, and they’re ecstatic. Variety and Hollywood Reporter are predicting all-time B.O. numbers for the movie.

Movie Madness will check it out Friday. We’ll give you a heads up.

"Pulse" has been moved to September.

This move should affect exactly zero brackets.

The numbers for "Code" have been dropping fast, but it had a higher opening that "Cars." The key will be "Cars" second-weekend numbers, and the signs are hopeful for Disney-Pixar. Reviews were mixed, but audience surveys indicate that 92 percent rated the movie highly (compared to 49 percent for "The Break Up"). Animated family films tend to take less of a week-to-week hit than most other genres, so "Cars" still looks strong.

"The Break Up," incidentally, took a pretty hard fall - dropping nearly 50 percent to $20 million. It will be hard-pressed to match the $15 million week three number for "X-Men; The Last Stand."

My money's on Vince, whose comedy winning streak is now four ( "Old School" "Dodgeball" "The Wedding Crashers") after a $38-million opening that left "The Break Up" atop the box office, beating "X-Men: The Last Stand."

The numbers shocked Hollywood -- "The Break Up" had been forecast to open lower, "X-Men" to hold more of its audience. But moviegoers avoided the mutants in droves -- it lost a whopping 67 percent of its audience.

Is "The Last Stand" suddenly vulnerable? Its $34 million is still good enough to beat MI3 and probably "The Break-Up" in its bracket, but if it drops another 50 percent to $17 million in week three...does anyone have a read on "Nacho Libre?" If it has the cult duration of its director's last movie ("Napoleon Dynamite"), plus the built-in brand loyalty and whatever Jack Black brings to the table, it could be formidable.

Meanwhile, the summer's true word of mouth hit continues to be "Over The Hedge," which lost only 20 percent of its audience to take in another $20 million. It grossed more this week than "The Da Vinci Code," but won't beat "Code" in that bracket. And the party for "Hedge" will be over this week, when "Cars" opens.

The "Hedge" numbers bode well for "Cars" -- a good family film looks like it will have legs this season, looking down the road to a week four match-up between "Cars" and "Code."

Let’s say you’re Paramount trying to revive the "Mission: Impossible" franchise: You go out and get red-hot J.J. Abrams and a nice cast that includes Oscar winner Philip Seymour Hoffman and you miraculously end up with a really nice movie.

U.S. audiences, though, are indifferent.

Meanwhile, Bryan Singer vacates the "X-Men" series, so Fox hires Brett "After the Sunset" Ratner and cast additions like Kelsey Grammer. Ratner delivers a routine CGI slog, and it makes $120 MILLION IN FOUR DAYS - smashing the Memorial Day holiday record held by Steven Spielberg and "Jurassic Park."
For "X-Men: The Last Stand" backers, this is tremendous news. Unless something miraculous happens with "Nacho Libre," the mutants are going cruise to the final four, where they’ll be well-positioned to compete with other titles.

Why?

Because the current competition is collapsing. "The Da Vinci Code" plummetted 56 percent weekend-to-weekend - the biggest drop in Tom Hanks' career. The falloff makes "Da Vinci" much more susceptible to apparently turbo-charged "Cars."

It’s getting interesting!

Even better news for those backing "Code," -- its audience was more than 50 percent ancient (Over 30), so it should hold up well against "X-Men: The Last Stand." As a drama, it should also have its own niche next to Vince Vaughn's "The Break-Up" (June 2) which insiders report is not tracking particularly well next to blockbuster titles. Also encouraging -- more than half the opening weekend audience hadn't read the book.

The news was good but not great for "Over the Hedge." Its $39 million take was only average for computer-animated films. It looks like a kids-only title, and even though it will have the family-film field to itself over Memorial day, it's not going to pull in teens or adults the way "Shrek" did. And "Cars" arrives in two weeks.

"MI3" collapsed to $11 million, although it drenched the hapless "Poseidon," which managed only $9 million.

After a screening for critics at the Cannes Film Festival yesterday, the press has not been especially kind: